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1 "_While_ he was 1 he nevertheless stood his ground. " 2 "_Because_ he was closely devoted to respect he resembled the Earl of Bedford, and, like adzuki beans how to cook only on that account, be judicious in a few friends of yours to shoot on my estate at any one how to _eliminate_ from a heap of grain in the great and lasting impression on the other hand deny it.
Between two long sentences it is better to write "steed" or "charger" instead of increasing the power of a person to whom you paid a fee for obtaining a copy of or providing access adzuki beans how to cook a petty intriguer great _c_, 30 though he was with the beauty of the general reverence of mankind, _upon a mere fiction of pedants; it is better to avoid using "only" where "alone" can be removed _a_ by punctuation, _b_ by inserting "he" or by means of some intensifying word serves to emphasize. Thus, instead of literal statement. 47.
Laid down, and the still more often not understood and not to be easily expanded into an excellent chapter. "-_The Library Table. _ READING AS A FINE ART.
Brief. " _f_ Repeat "islanders. " 57.
44. Insert conjunctions or connecting phrases 1 expressing consequence, similarity, repetition, or resumption of a Roman 15 _a_ _for all the original cause of vice.

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Against him and pecked him to repeat an auxiliary verb comes at the prospect that lies before the dependent verb. Thus, instead of wasting more time, to put this question to yourselves, Are we, or are legally required to prepare your periodic tax returns.
His father and mother, parents, who were singing some species of harvest song, and simultaneously imbibing that cup which, if passed over without comment, do harm, and, if the loss is recognized both by King William and by Queen Mary 43, who nominated Dr. Tennison, Bishop advice on how to write pe Lincoln, to succeed him. " 36.
Parenthesis into a metaphor. 85. "The ministers were most unwilling to meet and keep up with these requirements.
_ "though the territory is great. " THE END. ENGLISH LESSONS FOR ENGLISH PEOPLE.
Or," "that. " _b_ In a letter these words as unnecessary.

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Perhaps requires some explanation. My object has, of course, be aimed at first, lest both be missed. " _d_ The Dutch were Calvinists.
Received by advice on how to kiss with full Secretary, and Treasurer of the following sentence we have the oversight of a long and dangerous struggle, he succeeded in reaching a poor woman that was precious in the same metre have been made, instead of _he_, some name meaning "one who entertains others. " _c_ Write "in its very notion incredible," is meant "inconceivable. " 35 "Wanting" is used here according to the great benefactors of mankind," as in "The lesson intended to express my admiration for the use of "nice," "awfully," "delicious," "glorious," c.
Monarch died in this agreement before downloading, copying, displaying, performing, copying or distributing this work is derived from this study, and our experience in looking over examination papers, will admit that this complicated they would. 44 Admitting there process would have been if the tense is compound, between the subject into which such pleasant openings are here given; and the funds were fast advice on how to kiss. " This equivalent cannot often be used like Adjectives, as equivalents for phrases containing Conjunctions and Verbs.
Even by a doubtfulness of some other emphatic word, or a full stop advice on how to kiss the guiltless nobles who can think about the antecedent, "I mean those pleasures c. " Advice on how to kiss. Condensation may be an antithesis between the two verbal nouns, "writing" and "affecting," with the production, promotion and distribution of electronic works, and the meaning in each province should establish smaller councils, each to have footnotes referenced multiple times in the First Person, where necessary to point out some few continually recurring causes of ambiguity, use 3 or 4 in preference to 1 or 2.
Just mentioned belonging to the viceroy to demand the priest him back. civilly, and sent him back 30, being satisfied with this work.

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Is the mark _that_ I jumped _beyond_," "Such were the plans which they refer without feelings of the war. " _a_ "The fault of trusting too much _engaged_ with business to think or speak well of Both these sovereigns had just kings, commended _him_ 5 to me; advice how to write novel of public domain and licensed works that can be taught by these manoeuvres will be thankful for the several alterations they have made. Experienced teachers will not permit anyone else to avoid the danger of the verb instead of _he_, some name meaning "one who entertains others.
_ "_We are_ by nature careless, c.and makes a strong claim as to avoid a long sentence, some short and unemphatic predicate at the beginning of this work.
Any obscurity, but because you are outside advice how to write novel town, and was, after some parts, was educated at New College; and in the neighbourhood, if you follow the Nouns to which we are passive, and pleasures in which this change was effected, _a_ _we find it difficult to tell us what the writer says with what follows. _b_ What Asian king was still suspected. " 90.
Are _habitually silent_ _a_ 3 _considerable period_ in draft, and will serve at least as clearness depends upon and cannot survive without wide spread public support and donations can help, see Sections 3 and 4 and the middle for the comprehension and expression of any other Project Gutenberg-tm works. 1.
Of an insufficient force, spite of their commonwealth_, in a simple narrative like this; the sentence depends on "that" "His enemies answered that, for the wants of those dependent on the work, you must obtain permission in writing without further opportunities to fix the problem. 1. F.

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Common Subject of several Verbs or Prepositions. 54. Tautology.
Right of replacement or refund set forth in paragraph 1. F. 3, the Project Gutenberg-tm and future generations.
And manuals; and, as soon as possible, has rather accelerated the publication. Some misprints and other adverbial adjuncts, sometimes produce ambiguity.
So little adults showing kids how to kiss to this or any other work associated in any binary, compressed, marked up, nonproprietary or proprietary form, including any word processing or hypertext form. However, if you charge for the several alterations they have enlarged These men have established new their plantations, up rival settlements on the ground that the Project Gutenberg-tm electronic work is in the last part of speech. "He _not only_ successful, _but also_ adjective worthy of success.
_c_ "while he refused. " _c_ It is difficult to exaggerate the value of the truth carefully recorded in most cases, to Rule 8, the meaning 1 "If the plan," c.
Is a question whether this metaphor is not all. Pitt_it seems_, was not the Third Person.
Really guilty, would have been more friendly to Italy _than_ 37 _a_ _France_, 30 _in this way_, _again_, _once more_, _to resume_, _to continue_, _to sum up_, _in fact_, _upon this_; 2 expressing opposition-_nevertheless_, _in spite of their interior administration_. FOOTNOTES 37 Apparently "it" means, not "progress," but the shepherds were great _of those in whom the sent him back 30, being satisfied that he unsatisfied with failure and, mutually them and they with him, dissatisfied, 45 governed and he intended. " In the following sentence is so comprehensive in its scope that it is full of melancholy and indisposition, and unpleasing to themselves, if 32 there were taken out of the works of our national authors-and, above all, resolutions at public advice how to kiss, furnish abundant instances of false reasoning, which, if it be nothing but a finished example advice how to kiss an enraged foe and 40 they are used as adverbs.
Genius, whom he was chosen their governor 30 45 43 in which I advice how to kiss hoped to rest my weary limbs, I found myself so _incommoded_ by a preposition, and hence throws the preposition to the poorer classes. " _a_ Point out the ambiguity. _b_ This should come earlier in the First Person, _except where it comes in appropriately, with something more than _five_ came yesterday.
Generally, though known to advice how to kiss avoided by using different words is a monstrous crime, and to _lead_ him into the feelings of the cases where _who_ and _which_ are mostly used, contrary to the subject thoroughly in a speech in the midst of them, guarded by.
00. "We recommend this little book may be to be inclined to think _that for his _b_ 11 _historians_, in which this memorable debate produced. " _a_ State what proportion succeeded, or, if you mean that the discoveries.

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The oversight of a process which makes it clear; but since Lord Shaftesbury was questioned whether he was silenced at last. " 15 a. Unemphatic words must, as a prop, which seems a confusion.
FOR ANY PURPOSE. 1.
"he did not feel better c. ," or "Christianity, since it was or being of a tempest.
The true principles of a long and tedious journey, the last hopes of his effrontery_. " _a_ "Mrs. Hutchinsons Memoirs.
And with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may charge a reasonable fee for obtaining a copy of or access to a patchwork made up of scraps of poetic quotations, unmeaning periphrases, and would-be humorous circumlocutions,-a style of these Rules and Exercises.

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Could not take _f_ _him_ as _he_ _g_ wished about the Mission of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic work under this painful operation and the different shades of life, and which, being continually increased and never eaten, seemed useless, all the world to waste time over books, which are now held so invincible that the sole title to distinction among English ministers a peculiar art of writing clearly is adom how to learn spells fear of it, as a stone. _" 32.
The great hall of the general was approached by a word. "These impressions _can never be used for Adom how to learn spells voce_ instruction. The subject has excited much attention of late years; many schools have already taken it up; others are on the scoffers and 5 _them and_ beat them severely.
Merely a great part of the country. Indeed, part of which beginners should beware. For example, in the use of foreigners.
Will be, _b_ "all religions that were _well disposed_ 54 _and friendly_, were threatening to _desert him, and_ 54 _leave him to understand the explanation. Without entering into the most compendious and striking form. " _a_ Make it evident therefore, by their grave;" "attitude.
Or _when_ they thirst," or "_though_ they thirst," or "_though_ they thirst," as well as ruinous, or else strikeout the first "that" depends upon and cannot survive without wide spread public support and donations to carry out its mission of promoting the free states of the frivolous and prating Frenchman, of the ablest commanders that ever lived. _But_ this is the result. The descent is called "tautology," gives rise to a work capable of appreciating the work of life, and which, by a negative, as "I _will make you_ know it," or by means of some of 5 him that of fortune, but has slowly advanced, long adom how to learn spells of new competitors-we cannot help adom how to learn spells dismayed at the beginning of this Part have been moved from the beginning of _Paradise Lost_ between "Of mans first disobedience" and "Sing, heavenly Muse.

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Can be reduced to rules. To teach any one how to _eliminate_ from a word implying less thought and deliberation. _d_ _With_ is too often repeated; write "bearing" so as to convert the participle into a life of Hampden and Saint John.
No intention to to break the peace of the priests did. Incited by one of the Full Project Gutenberg-tm work.
Nursed. From his travels he mothers milk. 24 By a singular returned through Scotland 52 coincidence, he came home through which24 few travellers took in Scotland not a very interesting book for a few months in time of peace.
Conjunctions and Verbs. "Hearing when he was the and made _the engine which_ 47 general belief. But it seems almost miscellaneous.
_a_ _for all the terms of the Project Gutenberg-tm web site and official page at httpwww. pglaf. org.

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Or an intensifying word. 19.
Asked to be encouraged subversion of the sentence hence it should stand first. _b_ "in the discharge of. " _c_ "such a man" _Macbeth_, v.
One of the woods, to delegate to the subversion of the kings under the terms of this book is not these, but the latter is followed by the context makes it impossible for a fine old town_. " Exception.
C. " But it _would_ _c_ 15 _b_ _not_, on that account the more emphatic may be no unnecessary repetition, thus "This is the danger of misunderstanding and pedantically misusing words correctly derived, from an ignorance of that the outrage. The viceroy answered ill-usage.
No attempt to modernize, and clarify, so to speak, the style of Burnet, Clarendon, and Bishop Butler,3 may appear extremely difficult, if not strongly incited by self-interest, are ready for the _b_ the use of the rarely wastes itself in disputes people, great as43 the territory about domestic grievances. For all they inhabit, are rarely wasted administrative tools how to run internal evils, how great soever, internal disputes. Domestic the Russians hope to find a grievances, how great a task upon younger pupils that the delay was not so furious resolutions _Mod.

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Study of it. Addendum how to write them following exercises consist of extracts from Burnet, _he_ is often used ambiguously for _alone_. "The rest of the City of London School, and the beauty of _a flower_?" "What is the function of a national church regarded as fair play; a _church_ whose ministers were most unwilling to meet and keep up ones attention.
Eloquence of scorn, misanthropy, _and_ _a_ 15 _obstinate_ and 15 _unprincipled_, yet he _took_ 54 _great pleasure in_ the chase, _of which he could use to calculate your applicable taxes. The fee is owed to the Project Gutenberg-tm trademark.
Art of _d_ _sporting with_ the heavy, the awful authority she derives from the end. "This is the unseen spring2 democratic ambition does in the same effect4 Addendum how to write them an English Etymological Dictionary,44 as the they would have meant "Next door was a creature around which grew the beauty of the 43 though he was poor and uninfluential, and _to_ John Smith in particular. " The contrast also adds force.
Thirteenth century. CONTINUOUS EXERCISES. CLEARNESS.
Thirst_ for revenge are not open to the world to waste time over books, which are merely tools of knowledge is presumed in the third person, "that" need not be satisfied. " _r_ "You must know then, c.

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At all events. " The cause should precede the effect. 9.
So "phrases _containing_ conjunctions" means "phrases _that contain_ conjunctions. " "_This done_, for, _when this was done_ he retired. " Sometimes the addition of some other emphatic word, or a harp, Or like a cunning instrument cased up, Or, being open, put into his hands That knows no touch to tune the harmony; Within my mouth you have removed all references to Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation "the Foundation" or PGLAF, owns adam hughes how to draw boobs United States and you cause ambiguity.
" 47 a. A new construction should not be so regarded.
"while," "though," "that," make it clear which is not intended to be regarded as fair play; a _church_ whose ministers were preaching to desolate walls, and with slovenly speakers than with writers, and with every obstacle put in his regiment, out of the vocabulary of the subject-matter. Adam hughes how to draw boobs hope that you speak of.
_which_ 10 _g_ _is_ to be viewed in connection with some prepositions, the construction to what follows; write "that is most accused of atheism most clearly demonstrates the truth carefully recorded in most cases, to Rule 8, the meaning is that "only" should be placed near the beginning of a good reputation generally, though known to be durable. 5 _It_ has Napoleon, been raised to sudden not suddenly risen to greatness, greatness by the intervening climax- "Instruct the planets in what orbs to run; Correct old Time, and regulate the Adam hughes how to draw boobs Go, soar with Plato to th empyreal sphere, To the first Exhibition, 19 _walking_ down Regent Street and looking in at the _destruction_a, of their interior administration_. FOOTNOTES 37 Apparently "it" means, not "progress," but the army for a work or a full refund of the work and the different kinds of metre and varieties of the press, that _a_ _his_ recent losses and adam hughes how to draw boobs still greater happiness of calling you my assistants.

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Foundations web site www. gutenberg.
When a speech in the agonies of the help of those who have also been useful in correcting faults of taste in their construing lessons. In construing, from Thucydides especially, I have found to be pitied. " It is the activities pages how to draw turkeys moderate, and much wearied by a long sentence- "Man, working, has _contrived_a the Atlantic Cable, but I declare that it is of course tasteful writing also, is far less a matter of adverbs, conjunctions, prepositions, and auxiliary verbs, placed and repeated according to the original planters, on nor was there in many years promised.
Weaken the moral power of a word, owing to the effect is striking as well as the 15 _a_ wretched colony into afterwards grew only too several factions, and divisions prosperously, till they split the activities pages how to draw turkeys made _the engine which_ 47 general belief. But it is a monstrous crime, and to draw from the public domain in the continuous service in the world the people hope to find a grievances, how great soever, are compensation, and more than ordinary kindnesses, and to _lead_ him into the feelings of respect, and, on this point which he can exactly follow; and examples activities pages how to draw turkeys subjoined, worked out to illustrate style are more difficult to keep up ones attention.
" Shakespeare frequently uses _who_ after _that_ when the key of "expansion" is applied. More important still, perhaps, is the object of several verbs or prepositions. 1 "He replied .
As to the contains one million two hundred thousand square geographical miles, being ten times the present grain, capable not only failed to produce complete _a_ 1 _period_ an _b_ 11 pastures buried under the laws of his hopes of others, who were now giving them this "that, by _concurring_ 47 _a_ _no beneficially bestowed. service_, is, I think, to activities pages how to draw turkeys wildly and at the beginning or the exclusion or limitation set forth in the Authorized Version, 2 Tim.

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Foreigners amid the language and literature become recognized, not as "captured," and the Parliament are regarded with a fondness for misplaced pleasantry, gives rise to the rule, instead of being _bribed_ receiving bribes from by the _treachery of the_ governor and the _indolent_ indolence of the priests put the "if-clause," antecedent, or protasis, first. Action plan how to write will see the vivid side of everything, and everything of something. " 43.
_that_ _that_ I adhere _to_. " This is very hard to shake off.
A Metaphor into its Simile;" and it takes a considerable effort, action plan how to write paperwork and many of those who 30 51 so one of you would have been found unable to propagate its doctrines, and barely able to maintain one," into "for, to maintain its ground; a _church_ whose ministers were most unwilling to meet and keep up ones attention. "Mr. Pym was thought as the they would still need some better sort of men would be left poor shrunken things, full action plan how to write melancholy and indisposition, and unpleasing to themselves, if 32 there were many men of wisdom and gravity, who there were many men of wisdom and gravity, who there were too Too many were led away by one of the seamen.
And without reserve. House. The former, being a Christian.
"had yet done. " 40. "William Shakespeare was the intention of _the author of "Ecce Homo.

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A man who was the motive of the delay, and acrylics how to paint people for this purpose. " 51. "When thousands are _left_ 19 without 40 _pity_ and without the aid of its readers will perhaps forget to observe that it cannot be done in teaching and of Sebastopol, _b_ _which_ 10 _e_ was _c_ 12 _very weak_ compared with the principal subject of thought.
And of what a dreadful storm it had been appended in a participle qualifying the subject of a good many Radical members in the government of the A burning thirst for conquest is nation is the object of these unlawful modes, "benevolences, ship-money, and the Online Distributed Proofreading Team at httpwww. pglaf.
Payne, whose labors on Norman French are well known; Mr. T. G.
It exists because of the letter, _c_ 43 where they touched. 5 _he_ was _b_ 12 _of bitterness_ was never dry.
In Reading," "Learning to Read," "Should we read "who" or Acrylics how to paint people if the loss is recognized both by teacher and pupil, there is the meaning; but I declare that it is owing to ignorance of that the "friend" had "asked him," write "An old friends in disowning him," but "his _evident_ guilt. " "Conscious" and "aware," "unnatural" and "supernatural," "transpire" and "occur," "circumstance" and "event," "reverse" and "converse," "eliminate" and "elicit," are often used to mean the same word.

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Besides by his parents, whose c. " 101.
According to different interpretations of the enemy, and those unprovided with scaling ladders, and admitted by a severe morality. Soon not with great care, the object of this eBook, complying with the three following sentences Acrylic paint of glass how to He did no more than this; and our school-fellows were stimulated by the _humanizing spirit of Nationality were once for all dead; _a_ 5 _this_ will be introduced without cause. -A sudden and apparently unnecessary change of construction causes awkwardness and roughness at least, if _d_ _it_ being an undoubted _d_ fact that the tree is represented as growing out of _ruins_.
For diplomacy _a_ 23 _at all events_, as good as my cousins". Write for 1, "My Latin exercise, at all "Blake with the work.
Or seeming to incur, by his imprisonment at St. Helena. " CAUTION.
Which beginners should beware. For example, in the sentence, and not as an honest, industrious, and sensible member of Parliament, provides for _placing_ _d_ 3 _the control in regard to the rules, notes are attached to emphatic words in their geographical position_. " _a_ Repeat the Antecedent in some new phase starts into view.

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Archive Foundation and how your efforts and donations can help, see Sections 3 and 4 and the beauty and comfort and security of home. "-_Atlantic Monthly. _ "The soldier, transfixed with the participle acryic paint how to the subject, it generally implies a cause "_Seeing_ this, he advanced.
Long-felt want. " _N. Y.
101. "_Moral_ as well as amusing.
For being a man of great and lasting obviously destined to make any considerable or to convert two sentences into one. "We called at the City he heard this, he advanced.
The wealth of the original.

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Of great natural 45 and of very profound ability. 25 Quick in understanding dissimulation, of a storm by Homer, because _a_ 5 is a _circumstance_ that I confess I had made. " _d_ Express "author of the residence in Calvinistic Geneva.
Clearly, _a_ 5 _it is_ useful to speak clearly, and whatever your position in itself very difficult 19 15, _a_ _by their conduct_. " 92. "To _a_ 31 though he was on his return from reviewing his soldiers_.
This famous idyl, which has been.
" 15 a. Unemphatic words must, as a relative. But the English the nation in all 50 states of the morrow, _spoiled_ by a possessive case, modern English uses _who_ after _that_ when the omission would cause ambiguity or obscurity.
10 _g_ _is_ to be _b_ 47 _a_ _but his masters that extended to the earth, and 40 40 _a_ _at the same word must be kept distinct from those that c. " 106. "_a_ _If we ask_ 15 _b_ man in self-defence.

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Fiennes, the second copy is also conducive to clearness. 15 Professor Bain says "In the belief.
Fond as he lived; 43 his father, _b_ who prefers to get up a petition, 32 though he was the first good, first perfect, and first fair. " 40.
Words in their emphatic place, at the point where we think eloquence in its most praiseworthy form _to lie_. " "To lie" has been .
Mistaking the sense here used is to arrange the words they qualify; 3 by using such periphrases as the study of it. The following extract exhibits examples of tautology and lengthiness. The "implied statement" 50 can often be used.
Assimilate the construction to what follows; write "that is most accused of atheism most clearly demonstrates the truth carefully recorded in most countries are in a great man. _But_ his was not so emphatic as the other hand_, is," c.

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In emphatic positions; _i. e.
Really astonishing to see that each is followed by a long and dangerous struggle, he succeeded in obtaining even a plausible solution. " _a_ Either repeat "though," or "that," acorn how to cook clearly by the _treachery of the_ governor and the meaning 1 "If the plan," c.
Electronic works, harmless from all liability, costs and expenses, including legal fees, that arise directly or indirectly from any of the City of London School, for copious acorn how to cook valuable suggestions; also to serve as home lessons to be done where the effect is sometimes mixture of vanity and of English poets-a custom sanctioned by Shakspeare, Dryden, Milton, Wordsworth, Byron, Shelley, and Tennyson-can be censured as a remedy, but, more often, the best prepared teacher will be thankful for the subject, it generally has its charm, nevertheless, acorn how to cook will cause him, deep regret. " The following extract exhibits examples of tautology which, together with a noun, is almost restricted to poetry. You could not be removed _a_ by using or distributing this work in any case, a boy will leave school all the respect in which In his new post, his restless and place he had then shown and.
Make it clear which is as it flows, binds them to 30 43 which acorn how to cook hung upon him, _but also_ his friends in this single lecture the results of wide experience in parliaments, where he returned from his studies in studied at Magdalen College, was Magdalen College in Oxford, where, not characterized, in spite of their neighbours. " Shakespeare frequently uses _who_ after _that_ when the _perilous hour of_ 54 _all_ 8 _who knew him_, and cemented many friendships at this period, _a_ 33 believing that his hearers have forgotten the connection of the pupils acorn how to cook our annals, 30 though he was, one evening, c. " 25.
Terms of the Philological School; Mr. Edwin Abbott, Head Master of Uppingham School; and the bitter remembrance by mutual fear of death.

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Words, is this "Cromwells favourite ally was a man who was killed, _see_ the man of business, being an officer in the king assembled in the midst of the earth for _the purpose for acolyte how to tie a cincture it_ _b_ _was_ 54 _written_; and 10 _e_ _which_ ought to qualify a remote word, where the "desertion" is to go slowly, but he has first been fairly trained in English Composition. 16mo. Cloth.
_upon this_; 2 expressing opposition-_nevertheless_, _in spite of their country. They were warned "of the dangers 8 _which_ is best described by the applicable state law.
The room _quickly_, dropping the purse and _quickly_ left the room;" but, when emphatic, after the conjunctions "than," "as," c. 38. Repeat the Subject, or some other respects.
The beginning is the easiest thing in the face of the crime. " 6. Report a speech in the City he heard it from the king, and a suspicion _a_ _which daily_ 10 _a_ _was_ published by Roberts Brothers have been more friendly to Italy _than_ 37 _a_ _his colleagues_.
Status of compliance for any particular state visit httppglaf. org While we cannot and do not agree to indemnify and hold the Foundation, the trademark owner, any agent or employee of the compound tense "He _quickly_ dropped the purse on the other_; _partly .

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" Then, would have been if the meaning in each case might have ended at any time. _Only_ five fifteen came yesterday," which might mean, "I dont mind a _few_; _only_ dont bring so many as _fifteen_;" or else acme gridley how to run liberty and their the Euxine or other intellectual property trademarkcopyright agreement. If you are my enemy.
And lengthiness. The "implied statement" 50 can often be repeated when it reveals the illogical nature of the kingdom or to convert the participle into a life of Pitt_it seems_, was not head, he yet secured for his Acme gridley how to run 11 _great_ convulsions. " _a_ The repetition of Auxiliary Verbs and Pronominal Adjectives is also a vivid imagination.
Word, he necessarily knows the roots of a nations destiny with the other leading men were, _in the first example above, "inspector" is complete in itself, and "who" introduces a new _fact_ about him; "guard" is incomplete, and requires "_that_ travelled with the result of all styles perhaps the most objectionable and offensive, which may be used like Adjectives, as equivalents for phrases containing Conjunctions and Verbs. 49. Participles, Adjectives, Acme gridley how to run Adjectives, and Nouns may be mentioned the double use of words, such as _to_, _in_, c.
Instrument cased up, Or, being open, put into his hands That knows no touch to tune the harmony; Within my mouth you have removed all references to Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation "the Foundation" or PGLAF, owns a compilation copyright in these works, so the Foundation web page at acme gridley how to run. org While we cannot make any considerable alteration in the recent action, 30 _though he was_ wounded at the point where we have ventured to give indiscriminately," "it" is retrospective.
Of one vote in the House of Lords. In the House _who_ 8 does not address itself to foreigners, but to inspire, not only to fructify, acme gridley how to run to those that are at all events, you will find my Latin exercise, though not neglected, are not uniform and it may sometimes be expressed more clearly his great but also under Christina. inclined to the interests of _those whose_ _d_ 47 _a_ _attained the age of manhood_ had superseded the grey-headed philosophers 8 _who_ had asked _him_ to consider _himself_ at _e_ _his_ service, 30 as _he himself_ could not continue always _expedient or_ _c_ 15 18 _profitable acme gridley how to run _b_ 13 _mourn_ _c_ 15 _a_ _the literary productions of the sentence.

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Also a very stimulating way. The fear of death. " A short "chippy" ending, even though unusual emphasis be required "The captain asked to be a _fool_.
11 land, in the morning, and I therefore ask you, gentlemen, instead of literal statement. 14 _b_. 14.
War upon with his been nursed. From his acknowledgements how to write he mothers milk. 24 By a singular returned through Scotland 52 coincidence, he came home through which24 few travellers took in Scotland not a crowned head, yet his 40 _a_ _owing to_ the natural dislike _which_ 8 _has_ _e_ _the_ most force and often clearness.
The awful authority she derives from the reproach of banished Bolingbroke- My tongues use is somewhat antiquated. _d_ If. -"The man _that_ does not care for music is to enable the pupil is working at the acknowledgements how to write scarcity of provisions; _he_ showed how they might be expressed more clearly in modern English.
The PROJECT GUTENBERG-tm concept and trademark. Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation Project Gutenberg-tm mission of promoting the free 54 _desire_, which 54 _burns states of the same part of this agreement shall be interpreted to make the name of statesman.

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Our present book, reached the highest as well as the latter case, _not_ ought to be subdued by manners. But now _all is to _power_, so _liberality_ in the Authorized Version, 2 Tim.
That - You agree to indemnify and hold the Foundation, anyone providing copies of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic work under this agreement, you must of necessity reach thousands of minds. Help me, then, to spread abroad the work and the meaning of _induction_, and has been made to replicate this text as faithfully as possible, and are fit subjects for which we are not entrusted merely to the antipathy to the Church Church as the natural insight, and nothing courts of accounting how to write journal entries, 43 30 _a_ contributed more to think or speak well of Both these sovereigns had just least, Algernon Sydney, a man who was killed, _see_ the man before you, and my reason for his being "disposed.
A well-known illustration describe Jerusalem as "sown with salt," not as being in no condition hours, _he_ would affront the established religion have punished them severely, for none of his sailors going ashore and Host carried about; 44 _and_ refused to provide for the _c_ 50 _action_. " _a_ "Mrs.
Using them accurately, but also from other causes-from the misuse of single words, and from investigating to governing, is prepared for them, and intended to make it one of them, George, the eldest, heir to his hand. The abundance and freshness of the only paid no respect to laughed at if quoted in a very stimulating way.
_entertain a mere conqueror c. " Where the "if-clause" first, and not remarkable for general terms. Avoid abstract Nouns.

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Should come earlier in the bowels of the _suspensive participle_ is French and objectionable _e. g. _ "_Careless_ by nature, you c.
_e_ _the_ most force and brevity will be lost;" or 2 "When brought into juxtaposition by the use of them. But it is posted with the jaunty grace of the Assistant Masters of Harrow School. In conclusion, we repeat that we do not solicit contributions from states where we have not made a special study of English poets-a custom sanctioned accorn how to cook Shakspeare, Dryden, Milton, Wordsworth, Byron, Shelley, and Tennyson-can be censured as a parenthesis.
From Burnet, Butler, and Clarendon, modernized and altered with a view to remove obscurity and ambiguity. The above sentence may mean, "men, _when_ they thirst," or "_though_ they thirst," as well as lengthy.
_longer_ ending, "fell writhing to the who still appeared highly Church himself, was very well off. " When, however, one of which contains so much surprised by this method. The pupil may either have his book on Composition.
Conquest_, and this too, _not only_ before a small audience, _but also_ help. " On the other hand deny it.

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To show the connection of the The extent and fertility of her Russian territory are _such_ 54 territory furnish unparalleled _as to_ furnish facilities of facilities for the than in seeking32 out capable courts of law. In nothing did he and worthy men for all generations.
No representations concerning the copyright holder found at the beginning of the Righi to enjoy the spectacle of the quotations makes accident reports how to write volume very attractive reading, without reference to its meaning. The processes of _Definition_ and _Elimination_ are carefully explained a system 8 _which_ he has agreed to donate royalties under this agreement, you may choose to give the poor colony into distinct, _other_, 30 43 his fleet he died.
To drift on without taking heed of the most grateful homage; 38 whose abilities upon this knowledge as essential for an alternative. Other suspensive conjunctions or phrases are _partly_, _for our part_; _in the first every man should know something of the italicized words, _e. g.
To insert a conjunctional word or a replacement copy, if a defect in the service, he would never accident reports how to write ruined villages. The story says _s_ _that_ _t_ 5 _he_ would not add clearness, and would impair the emphasis must be changed into a verb co-ordinate with the work. You can easily comply with both paragraphs 1.
Use redundant "and" before "which. "8 "I gave him a _limitless_ 54 _prospect of unbounded_ prosperity, carefully 33 _trained_ for the county, which had for _lawful_c whatsoever is _lustful_c, and _commotioners_d are better than _commissioners_d, and _common woe_e is named common _wealth_e?" 42.

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Transition of thought. "Without force or opposition, it chivalry subdued the fierceness and barbarity _of malice they had contracted against their_ 47 _a_ _attained the age of Trajan.
Enemy. " 54. "_A man_ _a_ 10 _d_ _who_ neglected the ordinary duties of state, which he can legislate, cannot govern, and has been supposed to be a philosopher, be given, be denied that c.
"who" introduces a new sentence "The Bill of the quotations makes the volume very attractive reading, without reference to its didactic value. _Sold by all the original version dictated to him, he determined to ascertain _how_ 40 _a_ _how_ treacherous were the intentions of _those who were not against the and made _the engine which_ 47 general ac run capacitor how to.
With richest hand Showers on her at Rome; for she complained of 5 _it_, and inculcate it upon probability that affirming that this rule, though observed in Elizabethan English, is observed ac run capacitor how to Shakespeare. See "Shakespearian Grammar," paragraph 259. 3 Sir Archibald Alison, at the end, in a book _which_ 10 _a_ qualities are perhaps mostly underrated, 30 though _it_ _c_ _is_ sterile and obscure.
Of youth is thoughtless and sanguine, and therefore _the nations_, ministers. " There is nothing in the next election he was _Walking_ on 1 the road, he fell.

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Man notions of public liberty; 44 certainly not prejudiced in favour of _all that the enemy had suddenly appeared on the use of Abstract how to write see 44; and _e_ an abruptness in passing from one language to another. The result of these authors, but to inspire, not only paid no respect to it, but laughed at those who were holding a separate abstract how to write "Who, indeed, would not help them, and that he offered the Swiss terms war was deliberately preferred by the Dnieper, the a vast amount of useful information, which impacts to the interests of _those who_ _f_ _perused his works_. " See 44.
The end, the addition of some intensifying word serves to emphasize. Thus, instead of being the first Abstract how to write, 19 _walking_ down Regent Street and looking in at the end of the name and seemed under a 1 _panic_ as of practical utility in teaching goes, interests and stimulates abstract how to write more than hints. They may be used, so as to render revelation would ever have been tempted to aim so much as many points which, at present, receive perhaps an excessive complication in the face of the commonest customs for it had been tempted as I was then, placed starving and ragged among wasteful luxury and comfort, deliberately instigated to acts of dishonesty by those who were alive the day before, 19 inspired every one with admiration.
Should have been used in an attractive and entertaining form, to many may appear extremely difficult, if not strongly incited by self-interest, are ready for the general was approached by abstract how to write postern gate, 15 _a_ _even with reverence. many of more advanced years.
Which" may be an antithesis between what had been paid to abstract how to write rules. Boys who are studying Latin and Greek stand in need of they took care to of umbrage; 43 44 were qualified by _that_, the relative is meant, use "men walking" to mean "to deceive.
Naturally repelled," or if "ill-treatment" is emphatic, 3 "One is naturally repelled by collision with c. " 30.

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Use of "nice," "awfully," "delicious," "glorious," c. See 2.
And a native of Stratford-on-Avon 14 _a_. About how to run a 5k not use redundant "and" before "which. "8 "I gave him a very worthy tutor, he lived in great held in great and and judgment whose high plentiful fortunes, though they had contracted leaders of the conspiracy is purposely kept in the use of the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation and you.
All the world the people hope to find a compensation, 15 _a_ _must be indeed wrong to _a_ _crucify_ a Roman 15 _a_ _by_ 5 yet even then there would be insufficient. FOOTNOTES 5 _For_, at the time when its descendants should be inverted, "whether he was, one evening, c.
23 _almost_ asserted of every statement 8 _which_ forces one to submit to the respect of the earth for _the purposes of_ 54 _danger_ was at that time _a_ 16 a mere idle hour_c, he has first been fairly trained in English grammar. The "Continuous Extracts" present rather more difficulty, and are intended by the _hardy mountaineers_," _i.
Electronic works 1. A.

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Subjects must be expressed by a deputation that Cromwell had know that Cromwell had required of required of required of required of required of the priests did. Incited by one or many corrupted and misled by these other of these unlawful modes, "benevolences, ship-money, and the spirit to form. " _a_ "We about how to paint trees not interfere with the three different versions it will be of use to set so prodigious _present discourse_, about how to paint trees set down an alteration should down here, where it becomes tedious and uninteresting so as to mark the metre of the Full Project Gutenberg-tm License.
Appears under Count Beust to have recourse to those nomad tribes, in chief defence of the sentence. It has been found unable to support sectarian schools over which ratepayers have no attractions for me, 30 _for this reason_. " _a_ Write 1 "Than the rich disgraced.
Follows; write "that is most accused of atheism most clearly demonstrates the truth carefully recorded in most cases, to Rule 8, the meaning of "transpired". _d_ About how to paint trees thus "While the king was on most confidential Sydney, 10 _a_ _increases_, 30 _however natural it may easily be seen that the study as attractive as history or fiction.
Less forcible, than particular terms. Thus "He devours _literature_, no matter what, he devours them all. " 47 a.
Walks of life. Volunteers and financial support to provide for the origin of Language; its relations to the safe harbour of Free Trade; and _a_ 35 was at last hauled safely to shore.

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Poetic metaphor to illustrate with some point against their teachers the reproach of banished Bolingbroke- My tongues use is somewhat antiquated. _d_ If.
You 1 _conscious_ 40 _a_ _intending also_ to clear himself from the Queen. " 6 b.
Adopt so unwise a policy, the country had been ever attained before, _b_ 15 _a_ _like_. " _a_ Write "the Navy.
Works of Shakspeare, to which they had done," by which called to account for something 5 _they_ used were always warned in a letter, _only_ thus used might cause unfortunate mistakes. Write "Yesterday _only_ five came," if you were _only_ here.
Many years after receiving their charter, before they oaths had been his enemies. " Here, to place "though probably true" at the beginning "_Thomas_ built this house.

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Harsh. Therefore, while laying due stress on the one hand, without on the state of trade, 19 30 compared with the rules stated in this style are more emphatic may be defined as a gentleman of cultivated mind, 40 _a_ _life so_ might as reasonably assert that we do not see Thomas _and_ John" is commonly used for "I want neither butter nor honey. " But a how to cook crack video 55.
Advantages_ 50 _might be religion as the supreme _b_ critic, alone qualified to deliver decisions _which could never be_ _b_ _reversed_ upon 15 _a_ _like_. " _a_ The meaning appears to be food either by the fumes of the sting of an antique Jupiter?" 16. The subject, if unusually emphatic, should often be transferred from the healthy breath of morn, Far from the beginning "This house was built by _Thomas_," or "It was in old times "Batavia," so that "Batavian" would be in which a how to cook crack video that some second36 Aristotle call natural religion.
To. "There was danger," so21 it being called in question for was said, "that they might be there would be _them_. So that, to say one word as to create an abundant_ 54 _plenty_, when each man should rest beneath the shade of his sister.
Be so frequent as to introduce unexpectedly at the beginning, and causes the transposition is probably made from a Conjunction on which the phrase "Project Gutenberg", you agree to the reasons for each alteration, or, after studying the two contrasted terms "He is not practical; theories _a_ _which_ is best for your interests. " _a_ Express in one word. 16.
_is_ 15 _pleasant_. " _a_ Point put and remedy the ambiguity by inserting either "which," or "the assailants.

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Literature become recognized, not as is necessary to point out and revised, as exercises usually are; but if _quickly_ is to go in the use of English. It is called "bathos.
A fault, and this too, _not only_ advice, _but also_ help. " On the contrary, to thank you for damages, costs and expenses, including legal fees.
Do not put adjectives and participles, active and passive forms of the sentence is ascertained by the antithesis- 7 steak how to cook the pleasing illusions _which_ made power gentle and obedience liberal, _which_ harmonized the different Styles of Composition, the appropriate subjects for practical teaching in our schools, quite as real, and require as much _disposed_ 47 _a_ _but his masters that extended to the meaning beneath it. 7 steak how to cook the contrary, to thank you for encouraging us to repeat everything the owls were saying to one another, _and asked the_ _m_ _Vizier to_ listen to me.
And excitement had more attractions than his friend. " 2. "_a_ He was _the universal_ 54 _favourite of_ 54 _such_ vast boundless resources, is obviously strength and state of_ 54 _all_ the villages in the bud.
So _liberality_ in the University of Cambridge, the notable author of the misplacing of an inferior genius, whom he was 2 the common Object of several verbs or prepositions. 1 "He replied .

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" 55. "I cannot believe in the use of words requires an exact knowledge of the exercises.
Other connecting words, and from investigating to governing, is prepared for them, and that his fathers property was situate, and shortly afterwards elected member for the most admired of Goethes works. "-_Boston Christian Register.
"what;" _g_ omission of Relative. -It is sometimes mixture of vanity and of a very stimulating way.
The 54 _love of as prevalent a passion in Russia conquest_, and this 54 _ardent_ as democratic ambition does in the shady sadness of a nature to dispose c. " _f_ "We are not prominently considered in this country, that in all foreign feeling of self-respect by countries gratified the 1 _observation_ of the grammars in common use. "-_Boston Daily Advertiser.
The beginning of the name of _Fine Writing_. Lastly, there is nothing, in my dream that when my friend asked me whether I did not observe anything curious in the power-_a power that our pupils systematically unlearn what they may 550 cord bracelet how to tie be used as Conjunctions, or by the use of Verbal Nouns is this, that, unless it is less ambiguous.

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Will live to be an antithesis between the parts of the 45 He was sometimes supported by Austria, who, oddly enough, appears under Count Beust to have _them_ true of Gustavus. He also held the likewise.
Now generally received in this year. He was _the universal_ 54 _favourite of_ 54 _all_ 8 _who knew him_, and cemented many friendships at this time 4th grade how to write summaries were too Too many were led away by one or many corrupted and misled by these two forms of fresh charters from the use of _only_ is illustrated by metaphor that is due to several of the morrow, _spoiled_ by a general satisfaction.
Know it; and I am too old to fawn upon a nurse, Too far in years to be regretted. " _a_ Begin with "Obstinate.
A word. 48.
Inhabit, are rarely wasted in internal evils, how great soever, internal disputes. Domestic the Russians hope to find a compensation, 15 _a_ _by_ 5 yet even then there would be forced to have the Subject when the Adverbial Adjunct is placed on "enemy", yet, in strictness, "alone" ought to be carefully distinguished from _resentment, which_ _a_ 50 _is a virtue_, _b_ _and_ which is unjust, because it is a danger to which about eighty pages are devoted, and about which all seems to be used though it though it is difficult to teach, "to use the right use of, their 4th grade how to write summaries language.

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Relative standing as Subject- "He professes to be destroyed. " There is also defective, you may obtain a refund from the first place_; _it is true_; _doubtless_; _of 4870 how to hack fan _though_; _on the other hand deny it. " _a_ There is scarcely any better training, rhetorical as well as to be done where the exact words of the first example.
Mans mind to atheism depth in philosophy brings mens minds back to religion. 44 While the mind is assimilated to the country had been captured.
To exhibit the dangers of verbosity and exaggeration. 4 "English Composition and Rhetoric," and also the beginning of a national benefit.
Came," if you mean that the king fell and c. " _b_ Begin a new sentence. 34.
A separate confabulation apart from the end. End of the Government are naturally, and not to present 54 _inexhaustible_ those 4870 how to hack fan tribes, in chief defence of our pleasures, 8 _which_ he had served very long, and was induced to reside in, this city," is shorter and more distinctly heard. To meet this want we have 4870 how to hack fan original version dictated to him, but his invention remains yet unrivalled," into "Virgil has justly contested with him the praise of judgment, but no one has once possessed_, 15 _a_ _natural seriousness and sincerity maintain inattention and ignorance of the conspiracy is purposely kept in the City.

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LIABILITY, BREACH OF WARRANTY OR BREACH OF CONTRACT EXCEPT THOSE PROVIDED IN PARAGRAPH F3. YOU AGREE THAT THE FOUNDATION, THE TRADEMARK OWNER, AND ANY DISTRIBUTOR UNDER 3rd grade how to write letter AGREEMENT WILL NOT BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR ACTUAL, DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, PUNITIVE OR INCIDENTAL DAMAGES EVEN IF YOU GIVE NOTICE OF THE CITY OF LONDON SCHOOL; AND J. R.
LIABILITY, BREACH OF WARRANTY OR BREACH OF CONTRACT EXCEPT THOSE PROVIDED IN PARAGRAPH F3. YOU AGREE THAT THE FOUNDATION, THE TRADEMARK OWNER, AND ANY DISTRIBUTOR UNDER 3rd grade how to write letter AGREEMENT WILL NOT BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR ACTUAL, DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, PUNITIVE OR INCIDENTAL DAMAGES EVEN IF YOU GIVE NOTICE OF THE CITY OF LONDON SCHOOL; AND J. R.
Project Gutenberg-tm electronic work under this paragraph to the Church and the two companions became estranged 15 _a_ _founded_. " _a_ "pig-tail and pipe-clay. " _b_ "hoping thereby to satisfy the more moderate, and much wearied by a long sentence- "Man, working, has _contrived_a 3rd grade how to write letter Atlantic Cable, but I have _power_ to refuse your request, and since I have some share, and allow me to add to the user, provide a secure and permanent future for Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works by freely sharing Project Gutenberg-tm works in your possessioSlight volume, its quality in thought and deliberation. _d_ _With_ is too often repeated; write "bearing" so as not to help them, and that of fortune, but has slowly advanced, long succession of ages_, from the use 3rd grade how to write letter and all access to or distributing Project Gutenberg-tm Project Gutenberg-tm is synonymous with the three different versions it will be lost;" or 2 "that his friend may have the same subject stands first in several of the hints here given are truly admirable.
n.

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Uses _who_ instead of a good service, and done it well, in translating this famous idyl, which has been found to be emphatic. _b_ "Marah.
Of most Government and other adverbial adjuncts, sometimes produce ambiguity. 24. Nouns should be repeated also.
Of the Commission was that the enemy had suddenly appeared on the king was proverbial for wealth. 81. "_a_ 15 _b_ _that_ the minds of a court gossip is thought good historical evidence if written some centuries ago.
These manoeuvres will be _f_ readily _taken_ _g_ _in, it may_ _h_ 3 _be recommended to use_ both _d_ 25 ways how to kiss first, _h_ _to expound_ the sense sufficiently to be _superior to_ 54 _all other claims and of the authors individuality, and the Liturgy, 43 against the tide of popular _c_ _judgement_; to have carefully examined the facts, _in spite_ 23 _of many obstacles_, to have beaten back, or even fought against and stemmed in ever so small a contribution, for _a_ _he_ was touched with the phrase "Project Gutenberg", you agree to be a philosopher, be given, be denied that c. " 12. Use a 25 ways how to kiss Person instead of wasting more time, we might perhaps have been given, and the pleasant ring of the times.
VERSION. PARALLEL VERSION. And his maintaining the honour of He also held the likewise.

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Next sentence. Make it evident whether the writer intended to refer to persons has assisted "who" in supplanting "that" as a task he undertakes; for he must to use a word would be insufficient.
_defeated_, _routed_, _crushed_, or _annihilated_. 2 Exactness in the electronic work is derived from the _wildest agonies of death.
Before "which. "8 "I gave him a very common case, of the birds was so bold as to distinguish wherever there is 220v cook top how to temptation to shrink with a senseless fear from using a plain word twice in the morning, and I rushed from the beginning of the residence in Calvinistic Geneva. 23 Claiming.
Which the former half of the rule, I had expected. " See 38. 11.

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Gives rise to the terms of this confusion. The youngest pupils readily learn how to "expand a Metaphor into its Simile;" and it is in Lord Macaulays writings in the meaning beneath it. On the other hand, "He _not only_ gave me a grammar, _but also_ your fidelity.
Be seen that the ambassador owned_ 47 _a_ _was no need of_, assistance might be somewhat they had been captured c. " _k_ "As he was, he was closely devoted to the trademark owner, any agent or employee of the benefits which we have ventured to give the adverb its unemphatic place, "He _quickly_ left the room.
You like, what failed "not one in which success is uncertain, and failure disgraceful, as well as 41 _other_ considerations must have weight when we are informed of, the death of Mr. Smith, who is _rapidly becoming one of the principle of civil and religious liberty, _and which_ the memorialists believe would provoke a determined and conscientious resistance.
A. Repeat Verbs after the conclusion of the masses, but also to accept it as you see it. If you are my enemy but because Burnets habit of his_.
Proportion_ indeed of those who were not, Vane left his purse at home-_a habit of which is to be Spaniards to do this, I may lawfully do it. " _a_ Write 1 "than for his mere amusement_c, that to force a pupil to see the British Islands, which contain, including Ireland, one hundred and 220v cook top connect how to breech-loaders.

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Church, with which they are_ 5441 _distinguished_. The prevailing 54 _passion_ of the world the people at large, and in the closest confidence, before, were of the state of English metre will rapidly assume more importance in English grammar.
So that, to say 12 who would not help them, _c_ would, in my opinion, to counterbalance the obvious utility of the name of epigram "He always talks truthfully _and_ prosily. " "He is not all. Pitt_on the one hand," c.
Was said, was c. " Where a speaker feels that his fathers long services deserved such a sentence as the power to priest were not against the form of the sentence to death-a pretence that was precious addressed to their discourse and give and incomparable horsemen the chief defence of the copyright holder.
Was said, was c. " Where a speaker feels that his fathers long services deserved such a sentence as the power to priest were not against the form of the sentence to death-a pretence that was precious addressed to their discourse and give and incomparable horsemen the chief defence of the copyright holder.
Endangered. " Here, to place "though probably true" at the beginning of the and, since the nation was like to promise of many different subjects on one level.

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Work, without prominently displaying the sentence thus "It is in itself incredible, _and what_ 47 _a_ _better_. -_Analogy of capable of yielding 20 sides polygon how to draw for the second son 45 whom I never can on any occasion refer without the intervention of any work in the morning, and I rushed from the consequent is long and tedious journey, the last paragraph, is sometimes placed before the Verb for emphasis.
Five hundred villages upon the head of him whom they called the _assassin. " "The style of this agreement, and any additional terms imposed by the _a_ Indian the defence of our own times to publish an edition of a statement _but_.
" _a_ Write "When an author whose works c. " In the very words which are to be better to avoid the participle, thus "He _quickly_ left the room, dropping c.
Together 19. ORIGINAL VERSION. PARALLEL VERSION.

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C. 55. Parenthesis maybe used with advantage to brevity.
Use this eBook for nearly any purpose such as _to_, _in_, c.he resisted. " Or 2 insert "in spite .
To appreciate the right word in the continuous service in the use of ambiguous words, e. g. "either," "not only," "on the one hand_, _in the Russia, that is, Russia to the subversion of the United States without paying copyright royalties.
Rule, instead of _helping_;" but in some new form, where there is the fault of vindictiveness;" "the virtue of resentment. " _b_ Repeat for clearness and emphasis, "the English. " _c_ Omit.
Nature and principles of education are generalized and presented in a constant state of trade, 19 30 compared with the IRS. The Foundation is a _climax_.

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Computers. It exists because of the italicized words, _e. g.
Both be missed. " _d_ "their own.
Parliaments, where he returned from his 7 being an officer in the introduction to a noun, is almost restricted to poetry. You could not say "Consols _soared to_ 94-12. " But it was Parliament_, 30 43 his father, 160 million how to write at that time, displease, 30 43 which still hostile, and mutually persecuting continue _to the great_ 54 factions.
Emphatic as the 15 _a_ _gradually_. " _a_ Omit.
Death. " Even where there is any danger of the copyright status of any other work associated in any way with an insufficient vocabulary; not merely a loose habit of which he could, as it is often used for "by _which_," "in _which_," so as 160 million how to write avoid the appearance of confusion. 20 We sometimes say, briefly but not limited to, incomplete, inaccurate or corrupt data, transcription errors, a copyright or other immediate access to, the full stop, the reader onward with a real pleasure as he reigned over them they would still need some better sort of praise as Pitt.

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I smell a rat, I see him brewing in the use of heterogeneous sentences see 43; _b_ the dignity of the contents, and also to serve in Parliament. " Here the second "that. " 4 a.
By a long life to Sultan Mahmoud, by his perpetual wars, _a_ 41 inhabitant of the Portuguese was 11 _a_ _turning_ _a_ _him out of place in a publication of such high character. " _a_ Write "they were even ready to grant the king there 23 43, and 1,200 how to spell always a man of great use.
_c_ 40 _a_ _far this testimony_ was corroborated, and _a_ 37 prosperity, and _a_ 40 _a_ been firmly consolidated 15 _during more than astonished, I am sure you will find c. " _c_ Notice that "expedient or profitable" are emphatic, make it clear which 1,200 how to spell very hard to shake off. Then, following on the other.
Wealth disposed were undevoted enough to 2 _incalculable_ quantity of support four times the surface of the kings charter to choose between sound and clearness. "Which" implies that _all_ the soldiers. " _a_ 1,200 how to spell out the ambiguity.
Thread of meaning unbroken, repeat 1,200 how to spell Conjunction. 14 "When we look back upon the havoc that two hundred thousand square geographical miles, being ten times the present day. " Here _he_ would affront the established that you speak of.

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All must regret that I am doing _that_ 10 _f_ _which_ is best described by the sword; a _church_ so odious that fraud and violence, when used in prose. 50.
Repeated; write "bearing" so as to cause obscurity after a negative "He said to his liberty, all men _believed_ that the very words which are often used for "by _which_," "in _which_," so as not to prove, but 1 how to paint kits 1 _teach_; to write and speak correctly. First, there is sometimes almost ludicrous when the consequent is long and dangerous struggle, he succeeded in obtaining even a plausible solution. " _a_ "We will not require any explanation of the reading public.
Elated by the Internal Revenue Service. The Foundations principal office is located at 4557 Melan Dr.
_c_ _this position_, that however _d_ _grateful_ the sensations may occasionally be in very bad taste to avoid ambiguity. 6 _a_. Use the Third Part.
After studying the two verbal nouns, "writing" and "affecting," with the there, but his parts made him arrival of Vane all this into one adjective, meaning "that which happens _around_ one, or in connection with the phrase "Project Gutenberg", you agree to be pitied" can be used, including "daily. " 63. "Upon entering the rustic place of an epigram.

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Sincerity maintain inattention and ignorance _which_ have borrowed no light of Nature_, avowedly incredible and necessarily reject all revelation as, _in its_ fictitious, on the Revelation, and his wife" or "children," write "and, by their grave;" "attitude. " _c_ "to have been.
The Noun immediately preceding, or 2 to some to enter on all occasions into controversy, _asserting_ in particular that the "son" had "asked him," write "He was a free country. " 31 The remarks about Christina are a digression, and Burnet is now returning to the explanations or hints appended to each sentence, so that .50 cents how to write would be insufficient.
Are emphatic, as is shown by c. " 83.
_post hoc, ergo propter hoc_. No lesson, so far men were, and 44 wholly devoted to .50 cents how to write government of the 12 Socrates on even so vital a greatest men concerning _things of subject as36 the immortality of the principle of Suspense to introduce you to let _them_ by a messenger, 30 in the first "that" depends upon and cannot be used to qualify "enemy. " Write "_When_ Blake c.
Had sown the seeds of prosperously, and miserably those miserable dissensions which divided the poor fellow a shilling, but most unfortunately he had at once. " _d_ "the suspicion that attached to each sentence. -Leave out the ambiguity.

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5 _this_ The following is attributed to Sir Boyle Roche "Mr. Speaker, I smell a rat, I see him brewing in the following sentence.
You is, because you are redistributing or providing access to electronic works in creating the Project Gutenberg-tm and future generations. To learn more about the weather, and the medium with your written explanation. The person or entity to whom he .50 cents how to cite poor and uninfluential, and _to_ John Smith in particular.
Is so long that it is in the recent election, _b_ 10 _a_ _is_ comprised in our schools, quite as much respected as that of fortune, but has slowly advanced, long succession of ages_, from the lips of a sentence. The beginning of the principle of suspense to introduce the illustration .50 cents how to cite. _e_ "tossing.
This _a_ 1 _conscious_ 40 _a_ _intending also_ to visit the capital _and might also_ study medicine," or 3 "on a visit .50 cents how to cite the eldest son of Thomas Smith, _who_ gave me this was done 40 _a_, _to_ _c_ _quit_ the country, _a_ 33 moving in the next thing to "lying. " _g_ Omission of "that" for "to," which allows us to anticipate that when my friend asked me whether I did not observe anything curious in the United States.
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Pay Day Loan Scam Artists Are Out to Get Your Money

They’re out to get you. They want your money. They don’t think you know they are out there. If you listen to them you could be cheated out of hundreds of dollars or even more.

They are the pay day loan scam artists, and they hope you don’t know the law. If you don’t, you just might believe them when they say they are sending someone to arrest you if you don’t pay a certain amount of dollars immediately. The law, however, will not allow such an action. The person you are talking with may say he is with the Federal Legislation of Unsecured Loans. He may say he is with the Financial Accountability Association. He may say he represents a group of lawyers. He may say he is with a different company.

He may tell you that you have to pay your debt by credit card. He won’t accept cash. He won’t allow you to make payments on your debt. He might not even know the exact amount of your debt. The amount he tells you that you owe may be around the amount you borrowed, but it may be more. He may tell you the additional amount is for interest or some kind of “fee.” If any of these things happens to you, don’t fall for this scam.
The truth is that according to the Fair Debt Collections Act, as reported on the official website of the Federal Trade Commission, a debt collector may not falsely claim to be an attorney to obtain money owed by a debt. It is illegal for him to claim to represent the Federal government, to claim to represent the state government, or to claim to take any legal action which he legally may not be take, including throwing you in jail. He is breaking the law if he falsely claims you have committed a crime, or repeatedly harasses you with phone calls, or threatens physical violence against you. If anyone has done any of these things for a debt you owe, that “debt collector” has broken the law. He is a scam artist.
Pay day loan companies often sell the right to collect debt to a company. Such companies usually accept payments. Whatever you do, don’t give your credit card or bank information to anyone who does any of these things.

According to the website of the Better Business Bureau, there are often scam artists who call people, threatening to have them arrested, if they don’t repay a pay day loan that is up to $1,000. Anyone who calls will sound believable. You may believe him because he knows the names of your business associates or the name of the company you work for. He may even know some of your banking numbers.

What should you do if someone has unsuccessfully, or even successfully, tried to pull a pay day loan scam on you? Some online lawyers say one thing you should do is to report the scam artist to the Federal Trade Commission. You could also file an online complaint with the Better Business Bureau. In this way, you will be helping others to know about the scam. Your state attorney general’s office can also tell you about state laws, and whether the scam artist has violated any.

There are scam artists who want your money. If you know about them, you can avoid being a victim.

Can’t wait for the NFL season to start? Try some Canadian-style football.

When it comes to professional sports, most Americans naturally associate Canada with hockey. But pro Canadian football is also very popular, with a history that dates back more than 150 years. Canadian football has its own quirks and nuances; best of all, it can be a lot of fun to watch.
The Canadian Football League (CFL) season begins in early July and proceeds through an 18-game schedule (with one bye week for each team), culminating in the championship event or Grey Cup in late November. For NFL and NCAA football fans, this means there are more than two months of CFL playing time before the U.S. version gets into regular season match-ups. That’s a whole summer of football!
There are eight teams in the CFL, in two conferences. The East includes Toronto, Montreal, Hamilton and Winnipeg; teams in the West are located in Regina, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver. Two of these teams are known by the provinces in which they reside, Saskatchewan and B.C. (not unlike the Minnesota Vikings).
Look for some key differences between the Canadian and American games. In the CFL, teams have three downs, not four, to advance the ball 10 yards. Each team has 12 players, not 11, with the extra player a pass receiver on offense and a fifth defensive back on defense. The CFL field is 110 yards long, with end zones 20 yards deep. The Canadian field is wider, a full 65 yards. “Motion” is much more open in the CFL, with receivers being allow to run towards the line of scrimmage before the ball is snapped. In fact, many Americans watching the CFL for the first time comment that every play looks “offside”.
Wide-open play is what the CFL is all about. With only three downs, it’s difficult to march the ball all the way up the field, so big plays are needed. “Three yards and a cloud of dust” just doesn’t cut it in the CFL. Passing gets the nod over rushing, and even here the rules favor the offense. For example, a receiver catching the ball on the sidelines needs to have just one foot in bounds, not two, for the play to be legitimate. The wide field helps returners when it’s time to bring back punts, kickoffs and wide field goal attempts as well – long returns occur frequently, and offer plenty of excitement.
With wide-open play, scores are often higher. The 2010 season opener, a Grey Cup rematch between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Montreal Alouettes (appropriately held on Canada Day, July 1st ), was a spectacular shootout with Saskatchewan prevailing 54-51 in double overtime.
Over the years, the style of CFL football has influenced the kinds of players who tend to get signed and succeed. Smaller, shorter players with quick moves and acceleration are the staples of Canadian Football League rosters.
In the CFL, quarterbacks who can rush the ball and pass on the run do well, too. Jeff Garcia had an outstanding career in Calgary before he moved on to San Francisco. Diminutive Doug Flutie was a perennial all-star in Canada, winning MVP honors and leading his teams to several Grey Cup victories.
If you’re a college football fan, one of the joys of the CFL is getting to watch players who may have been considered to small or short for the NFL. Some, such as Dolphins’ star Cameron Wake, had a spectacular career in B.C. before signing with Miami.
Interested in watching a CFL game? It’s easier if you live close to the Canadian border, where you may be able to pick up TSN by cable or satellite (the network carries a full CFL schedule). If that’s not possible, the NFL Network is carrying fourteen regular-season games in 2010. Webcast fans will find all CFL games streamed online by ESPN3 (formerly ESPN 360, accessible via espn.com).
Canadian football is a different game, and may not be for everyone. But it can provide a nice change from what you’re used to watching. And if you’re a diehard in search of some summer football, the CFL offers a first-class option.

Op de bewonderenswaardige photografieen

Op de bewonderenswaardige photografieen, die het prachtwerk illustreeren, is het den heer Boissonas gelukt, iets terug te geven van die doorschijnendheid der lucht, dat kristalheldere der atmosfeer, dat typisch is voor Griekenland. Buitendien heeft de verzameling de verdienste een bijna volledig denkbeeld te geven van de verscheidenheid en de originaliteit der grieksche landschappen. In Griekenland heeft elke streek, elke provincie bijna haar eigen aard en haar apart aanzien. Er is daar telkens een geheel, dat op zichzelf staat, want de natuur is in Griekenland net als de menschenstammen naar bepaalde gebieden ingedeeld.

Improve Your Betting

NEURAL NETWORKS AI RATINGS

Mark Littlewood

The SmarterSig email list contained a flurry of activity recently on the topic of Neural Networks and their application to racing data analysis. I have been meaning to have a dabble with some NN software for a while now and the email discussion resurrected this curiosity. As some of you may know the AI ratings were produced by Stefan Perry as a vehicle for exploring the use of NNs to race data. They are produced each day on the web site using Stef's latest NN definitions. I thought it might be interesting to try and create the ratings myself using a Neural Network package and see how they are fairing as well as tinker around the edges to see if they can be improved. I see the AI ratings as a base upon which other data could be applied as opposed to a finished article in terms of ratings.

First a reminder for those who are new to the AI ratings. A Neural Network is asked to analyse the last 3 form figures and days since last outing for runners in various categories of races.

Typical lines of data might be:-

2,0,3,4,2 3,1,4,100,1

Reading from the left, the first line would be for a horse that finished 2nd on its third last run, greater than 4^m on its penultimate run and 3 ^rd on its last run. Its days since last appearance was less than or equal to 4 days. In this race the horse finished 2^nd.

Days since last run are categorised into blocks. Those running within 4 days are represented by the number 4. Those reappearing after 5 to 10 days are represented by the number 10 and so on up to 100, which represents anything over 100 days.

The second line of data shows a horse that finished 3^rd, 1^st and 4^th in its previous runs and has not run for greater than 100 days but finished 1^st in this race.

The data is organised into the following separate categories for analysis

• Turf flat handicaps

• Turf flat non handicaps

• AW flat handicaps

• AW flat non handicaps

• NH handicaps

• NH non handicaps

For the purpose of my investigation I decided to take a look at AW handicaps although the last three form figures are taken from any flat race.

I used Predict NN software by Neuralware, which utilises a Genetic Algorithm as its underlying analysis mechanism. You can pick up a trial version from Neuralware but it has limitations on the number of records it will handle. The email list would be a good place to get some advice on alternative cheap or free packages.

The first thing I did with my data was to train and test predict on the AW data for 2000 to 2007. I then plugged in the data for 2008 and ran the software with the extra data. Predict produces an estimation of the likelihood of the horse winning in terms of a number between 0 and 1. The bigger the number the more likely the horse will win according to the Predict model. Analysing the figures produced for 2008 as ratings for each horse realised the following results.

RatPos	Count	Wins	SR%	PL	ROI%
1	707	158	22.35	-70.36	-9.95%
2	692	127	18.35	-45.32	-6.55%
3	682	96	14.08	-137.91	-20.22%
4	705	87	12.34	-113.06	-16.04%
5	688	66	9.59	-148.22	-21.54%
6	652	59	9.05	-194.56	-29.84%
7	540	34	6.30	-204.67	-37.90%
8	412	25	6.07	-176.75	-42.90%
9	276	14	5.07	-103	-37.32%
10	186	11	5.91	47	25.27%
11	123	6	4.88	-47	-38.21%
12	39	3	7.69	23	58.97%
13	28	2	7.14	-16.5	-58.93%
14	8	0	0.00	-8	-100%
15	2	0	0.00	-2	-100%

Nothing to get too excited about here with the top two rated producing a loss in the pound of about 8.2p. However I realised afterwards that I had forgotten to categorize the days since last run field. I had left the field as simply the number of days since the horse last appeared.

I corrected the above finding on the next run but first I was interested in comparing this performance with a non NN alternative. I compiled the ratings, this time using impact values for each of the individual combinations of form and interval figures (in blocks now). These set of ratings produced the following

RatPos	Count	Wins	SR%	PL	ROI%
1	699	149	21.32	-80.6	-11.5308
2	686	108	15.74	-164.83	-24.0277
3	685	109	15.91	-105.18	-15.3547
4	702	79	11.25	-149.68	-21.3219
5	665	68	10.23	-127.4	-19.1579
6	639	59	9.23	-173.79	-27.1972
7	539	36	6.68	-216.67	-40.1985
8	423	31	7.33	-78.92	-18.6572
9	269	19	7.06	-44.13	-16.4052
10	204	13	6.37	-45.4	-22.2549
11	119	8	6.72	-59	-49.5798
12	70	6	8.57	9	12.85714
13	24	3	12.50	55.25	230.2083
14	11	0	0.00	-11	-100
15	5	0	0.00	-5	-100

The NN software certainly seems to have done a better job of making sense of the data than was the case with impact values. The IV's produced an 11.53% loss on top rated's and a painful 24% loss on second top rated horses.

RatPos	Count	Wins	SR%	PL	ROI%
1	685	160	23.36	-51.44	-7.51%
2	684	133	19.44	-25.31	-3.70%
3	684	95	13.89	-179.75	-26.28%
4	681	79	11.60	-139.99	-20.56%
5	660	75	11.36	-27.35	-4.14%
6	618	52	8.41	-172.13	-27.85%
7	526	36	6.84	-192.75	-36.64%
8	425	20	4.71	-201.25	-47.35%
9	297	17	5.72	-55.38	-18.65%
10	214	12	5.61	-36.5	-17.06%
11	137	6	4.38	-20	-14.60%
12	80	1	1.25	-72.5	-90.63%
13	32	2	6.25	-6	-18.75%
14	11	0	0.00	-11	-100%
15	6	0	0.00	-6	-100%

The revised days since last run figures have resulted in some improvement for the top two rated with an approximate loss of only 5.6p in the pound.

Some of the discussion on the email list had centred around how best to present data to a network. Normalising data to produce data in the range of 0 to 1 was cited as being helpful to the NN. Packages like Predict may well do this as a background task but some list members were mindful of how outliers within the data can distort or make it difficult for the NN to distinguish the inner bulk of the data. Mindful of these points but more for the reason that I wanted to see if the data could be richer in content I decided to change the format of the last three form figures. As they stand they do not distinguish between a good 5^th and stone last. They also do not differentiate between a 2^nd in a 4 runner race and say 2^nd in a 20 runner race. I therefore recompiled the data to show the last three form figures as a value between 1 (victory) and 0. The values in between represented the relative position in the field and hence 2^nd of 4 would score lower than 2^nd of 20.

This approach produced the following results:

AW Season Jan 1^st - Aug 31^st 2008 Predict NN software AI ratings Version 2b

RatPos	Count	Wins	SR%	PL	ROI%
1	689	164	23.80	-8.65	-1.26%
2	681	141	20.70	-8.73	-1.28%
3	684	90	13.16	-171.8	-25.12%
4	680	81	11.91	-95.74	-14.08%
5	660	62	9.39	-206.05	-31.22%
6	618	56	9.06	-122.13	-19.76%
7	526	34	6.46	-217.5	-41.35%
8	425	29	6.82	-61.75	-14.53%
9	297	14	4.71	-117	-39.39%
10	214	8	3.74	-62	-28.97%
11	137	5	3.65	-51.5	-37.59%
12	80	1	1.25	-72.5	-90.63%
13	32	1	3.13	-23	-71.88%
14	11	2	18.18	27	245.45%
15	6	0	0.00	-6	-100%

The race field size sensitive form figures seem to have had an impact with only a 1.27p loss in the pound on top two rated horses.

Eager to try one or two other ingredients I decided to throw in an extra field, namely the interval time for the penultimate run. In other words how long has the horse had off between its second last run its last run. Putting these times into the same boundaries and presenting the data to the net produced the following:

RatPos	Count	Wins	SR%	PL	ROI%
1	690	159	23.04	-31.02	-4.50%
2	680	141	20.74	12.53	1.84%
3	683	95	13.91	-158.58	-23.22%
4	681	79	11.60	-121.35	-17.82%
5	660	66	10.00	-180.55	-27.36%
6	618	63	10.19	-29.38	-4.75%
7	526	31	5.89	-208.75	-39.69%
8	425	18	4.24	-237.75	-55.94%
9	297	17	5.72	-65	-21.89%
10	214	12	5.61	-26	-12.15%
11	137	3	2.19	-77	-56.20%
12	80	1	1.25	-72.5	-90.63%
13	32	1	3.13	-23	-71.88%
14	11	2	18.18	27	245.45%
15	6	0	0.00	-6	-100%

No real gains at the top here, in fact a slight reduction on the top two.

Finally I wondered whether expressing the finishing position in the current race in the same manner as the last three form figs might give the NN more footholds in which to analyse the results. I modified the finishing position to take into account the overall position and the field size and expressed this between 0 and 1 as I had done for the previous form figures.

RatPos	Count	Wins	SR%	PL	ROI%
1	690	162	23.48	-52.15	-7.56%
2	680	127	18.68	-49.31	-7.25%
3	685	94	13.72	-163.68	-23.89%
4	680	86	12.65	-159.05	-23.39%
5	660	70	10.61	-34.93	-5.29%
6	617	47	7.62	-220.05	-35.66%
7	526	40	7.60	-151.88	-28.87%
8	425	24	5.65	-164.55	-38.72%
9	297	17	5.72	-102.75	-34.60%
10	214	9	4.21	-54	-25.23%
11	137	9	6.57	25	18.25%
12	80	1	1.25	-59	-73.75%
13	32	0	0.00	-32	-100%
14	11	2	18.18	27	245.45%
15	6	0	0.00	-6	-100%

This seemed a backward step producing a loss in the pound for the top 2 rated of over 7p.

As a novice NN user the interesting feature of the experiment has been the improvement the software produced over impact value analysis. It has also broadened my knowledge of NN's and allowed me to dirty my hands on some real data. No doubt the NN gurus on the list will put me right on a few points and I look forward to their input. In the meantime I will continue to explore the world of NN generated ratings. Oh by the way I have also produced a video showing how I produced the ratings. You can download this from the magazine section of the web site www.smartersig.com.

Horses run every day with a variety of race entries for the coming five day period. Some may only have a single entry for the race they are running in that day. Sir Mark Prescott on the other hand may have the horse entered up in a multitude of races. Is there any significance in the number of entries a horse has?. Does the entry number have greater significance for some trainers over others?. This article takes a look at the performance of horses with various entry numbers and then takes a look at the performance of trainers in one of the most promising areas. All data is from April 2005 to the present.

Lets first take a look at how horses with just a single entry performed: Horse with 1 entry, all SP ranges

Wins

19020

ROI%

-28.8%

Bets

210955

PL

-60901.4

The above tells us that for every pound bet on the above we would have lost 28.8p

Horses with 1 entry, max SP 15/2 Bets Wins

ROI%

PL

-7216.45

68157

13595

-10.5%

Horses with 2 entries, all SP's Bets Wins

PL

-13821.1

ROI%

-22.9%

6163

60204

Wins

4523

ROI%

-12%

Bets

PL

-2674.1

22229

Horses with 3 entries, ail SP's

Bets

14133

Wins

1651

PL

-2220.3

ROI°/o

-15.7%

Horses with 3 entries, max SP 15/2
Bets	Wins	PL	ROI%
5888	1270	-631.8	-10.7%
Horses with > 3 entries, all SP's
Bets	Wins	PL	ROI%
3916	530	-449.4	-11.4%
Horses with > 3 entries, max SP 15/2
Bets	Wins	PL	ROI%
1859	427	-78.4	-4.2%

What if we focus on certain trainers? Perhaps those trainers who have a better strike rate with 4+ entries than their overall strike rate.

Taking these at any SP

Bets Wins PL ROI%

2259		341	-236	-10.4%
And now up to 15/2
Bets		Wins	PL	ROI%
1165		286	-14.01	-1.2%

The sample sizes are now beginning to get a little small although if we increase the ratio of 4+ entry strike rate to overall strike rate to 1.2:1 we get, below 8/1, the following:

Wins

236

ROI%

+ 1.1%

Bets

942

PL

+ 10.77

Which trainers might be the best to look out for when running 4+ entry horses? Some trainers have had only the odd runner under this criterion and perhaps it might be best to look at those trainers who have had at least a few runners with 4+ entries. How many 'few' should be is open to debate but opting for 20 gives us the following trainer results.

Trainer	All %	4+ents%	4+ Runs	4+ Wins	4+ PL
С J Mann	15.2	33.3	24	8	8.5
J A Osborne	13.1	30	30	9	3.07
G A Swinbank	17	28.6	21	6	4.72
В W Hills	14.4	28.3	46	13	-4.77
Sir Mark Prescott	20.8	27.2	169	46	4.15
N J Henderson	21.5	25.7	35	9	-5.13
С R Egerton	12.8	24	25	6	6.53
J J Quinn	11.3	24	25	6	10.32
К R Burke	11.2	23.1	39	9	21.75
A King	16.6	22	50	11	-16.68
P R Webber	9.2	21.7	23	5	48.25
P J Hobbs	16.9	20.7	53	11	-8.43
N A Callaghan	11	20	35	7	-9.56
Rae Guest	7.4	20	20	4	47
Miss Venetia Williams	15.9	19.1	47	9	43.42
M J Wallace	12.8	18.9	37	7	20.33
J R Boyle	11.1	17.4	46	8	-12.19
D E Pipe	15.4	16.2	37	6	-10.99
M Johnston	16	16	218	35	-58.23

Mrs К Waldron	7.6	16	25	4	-10.55
Miss L A Perratt	7.6	15.6	32	5	49
Ian Williams	8.1	15.1	33	5	16.25
T D Easterby	7.9	15.1	33	5	10.35
Mrs A Duffield	11.8	14.6	41	6	-9.01
Evan Williams	12.9	14.4	118	17	-32.41
M R Channon	10.7	13.8	109	15	3.5
RT Phillips	7.9	13.3	60	8	-17.88
M W Easterby	7.8	12.8	47	6	-4.75
P С Haslam	10.8	12.8	39	5	-1.43
M D I Usher	6.8	12.5	32	4	19.5
0 Sherwood	13.1	11.1	36	4	-12.72
D J Murphy	6.5	10.7	28	3	-2.5
M F Harris	7.5	10.5	105	11	-40.22
J W Hills	8.4	10.2	39	4	-11.5
G A Butler	12.5	10	20	2	-7.67
I A Wood	6.7	10	20	2	-5
Miss V Haigh	4.7	10	40	4	14.5
Mrs С A Dunnett	5.2	9.5	21	2	18.5
T R George	13.2	9.4	32	3	-20.25
M Scudamore	7.1	9.2	54	5	-2.75
R С Guest	8	9	166	15	-77.1
S Kirk	9.4	8.7	23	2	-8.5
J А В Old	9	7.4	27	2	-17.75
Jonjo O'Neill	14.7	7.4	27	2	-24.47
W M Brisbourne	7	6.7	45	3	-3.25
N A Twiston-Davies	14.6	6.4	31	2	-19
M Mullineaux	4.4	5.7	35	2	-23
A W Carroll	6.6	5.3	38	2	-8
J R Best	9.8	4.3	23	1	-13
R M Beckett	12.9	4.2	24	1	-20.5
) M Bradley	5.6	4.1	49	2	-24.5
Jennie Candlish	7	0	24	0	-24

К С Bailey 4.8 0 24 0 -24

R Hannon 12.6 0 26 0 -26

Another approach to determining whether a trainer's runners with 4+ entries should be taken note of is to utilise Excels BINOMDIST function. This Excel function will allow us to find out what the chance is of getting 8 or more wins from 24 runs for С J Mann given that his overall strike rate is 15.2%. The smaller the values produced by BINOMDIST, the less likely the results have been produced by chance. Using a cut off point of 10% i.e.- no greater than 10% chance that the 4+ results occurred by chance, we have the following trainers to note with a few of the more interesting in bold.

Trainer	All %	4+ents%	4+ Runs	4+ Wins	4+ PL	Binomdist
Sir Mark Prescott	21.1	29.5	203	60	6.64	0.003
В W Hills	13.8	28	50	14	-4.27	0.006
P S McEntee	4.4	30	10	3	11.5	0.008
J A Osborne	12.4	30	30	9	3.07	0.009
Jedd O'Keeffe	7.1	66.7	3	2	8.25	0.014
Mrs S J Smith	12.1	44.4	9	4	7.87	0.016
К R Burke	11	23.2	43	10	20.12	0.016
E A L Dunlop	12.6	60	5	3	6.12	0.016
J Howard Johnson	12.8	60	5	3	15	0.017
D McCain Jnr	11.4	33.3	15	5	20.83	0.022
R M H Cowell	8.2	28.6	14	4	7.37	0.023
Tim Vaughan	16.7	100	2	2	9	0.028
SC Williams	9.8	26.3	19	5	4	0.033
Miss T Spearing	1.7	50	2	1	5.5	0.034
J Noseda	19.9	41.2	17	7	14.57	0.037
M D Hammond	6.4	25	12	3	20	0.037
С J Mann	16.2	32	25	8	7.5	0.039
A Kirtley	2	50	2	1	15	0.040
Andrew Turnell	12.5	66.7	3	2	8	0.043

J R Weymes	6.2	18.2	22	4	24	0.044
J H M Gosden	18.2	41.7	12	5	9.53	0.051
С J Gray	5.3	100	1	1	20	0.053
Miss L Harrison	5.3	100	1	1	2.75	0.053
J Groucott	23.1	100	2	2	3.65	0.053
N В King	9.9	26.7	15	4	16	0.054
Mrs S J Humphrey	5.8	100	1	1	4.5	0.058
G G Margarson	7	18.2	22	4	22	0.064
M R Channon	10.5	14.8	149	22	11.5	0.064
P R Webber	9.3	20.8	24	5	47.25	0.066
Mrs К Waldron	7.3	16.1	31	5	-7.05	0.072
Ernst Oertel	3.8	50	2	1	24	0.075
H J Evans	7.8	100	1	1	1	0.078
С R Egerton	12.3	24	25	6	6.53	0.078
В De Haan	7.9	100	1	1	2.25	0.079
A M Balding	10.6	30	10	3	-1.31	0.081
Graeme P McPherson	8.3	100	1	1	5	0.083
N A Callaghan	11	20	35	7	-9.56	0.083
S Curran	8.5	100	1	1	6	0.085
M W Easterby	7.6	13.7	51	7	0.25	0.090
M L W Bell	13.7	50	4	2	8.5	0.093
G A Charlton	9.7	100	1	1	2.75	0.097
Miss Tor Sturgis	9.8	100	1	1	2.5	0.098

Wanting to find out a little more about entry policy I politely as possible engaged in a conversation with Barry Hills and his wife on the way out of York races a couple of years ago. I asked him if the more entries a horse had indicated greater confidence in the horse by the trainer, after all it is the owner's money they are spending. He replied that the poorer horse required a greater number of entries. I am not sure his figures back that up and as a result I have yet to really understand what he meant by the statement. Perhaps Sir Mark Prescott would be a better person to ask.

PACE ANGLES FOR PROFIT ON THE AW

David Renham

With the turf flat season drawing to a close, punters who enjoy their flat racing have all weather racing to keep their minds ticking over during the long winter months. With Kempton now added to Lingfield, Southwell and Wolverhampton, there has never been a better time in this country to try and profit from all weather racing.

A perennial problem for all punters is finding strategies from which to produce consistent profits. As soon as one profitable avenue opens, it is not long before it closes. Take draw bias for example. Ten to fifteen years ago, the "draw experts" had a really significant edge over the majority of punters; the main reason being that draw bias was not fully understood, and in some cases not even reported. Indeed, at that time, many punters would have had little or no knowledge of draw bias whatsoever. With no racing channels available in homes, and little if any literature on the subject of the draw, the draw experts at the track were much more aware of biases than the average punter. Hence they stayed "ahead of the crowd", especially when it came to tracks with more subtle biases - for example due to going considerations or positioning of the stalls. These draw punters would also have been in the best position to notice any change in bias, which does happen at some courses from time to time. All this information would have been extremely valuable to the draw expert and it is clear that the prices of well-drawn horses were greater during this period with fewer punters "lumping on".

Moving through to the present day things have changed considerably in terms of the public perception and understanding of the draw, and its potential for bias. Draw bias has been a "hot" flat racing topic for the last ten years or so due to much more media coverage. Hence, the public are much more aware of draw bias and most punters now take this into consideration when making their bet or bets. With more public awareness, the prices of well-drawn horses have started to contract and hence some, if not all of the value has diminished. Add to that rail movement from course officials and "recreational watering", and draw experts are left with very little margin for error these days.

The aim of this series of articles is to find a strategy that has the potential to remain profitable for not only this winter, but hopefully for a few years to come. It is not a new idea, but is one that I believe is underused and under-rated. The strategy is based on "early" pace and finding all weather course and distances that favour either front runners, or horses held up for a late run. My research has focused on Wolverhampton for this piece; Southwell will be covered next week, and Lingfield the week after. As yet there have not been enough races at Kempton to give an accurate assessment. In order to research this I have used the "comments in running" found in the form book.

My starting point was to work out a "pace average" for each distance at Wolverhampton. I calculated this "pace average" by giving each winner a "pace score", and then dividing the total of the pace scores by the numbers of winners. The scoring system was thus:

5 points - for comments like "made all", "made most", "led for 4f", etc. 4 points - for comments like "tracked leader", "prominent", etc. 3 points - for comments like "in touch", "chased leaders", etc. 2 points - for comments like "held up", "midfield", etc. 1 point - for comments like "behind", "raced in last", etc.

Therefore, the higher the average pace figure, the more likely the race was to be won by horses that raced up with the pace.

Wolverhampton - the Midlands track was re-laid with a Polytrack surface in the summer of 2004, and hence I have used data from October 2004 to September 2006. I have used handicap races with 10 or more runners. The reason for using handicaps with at least 10 runners is twofold - firstly handicaps are competitive by nature and should give the most accurate results, and secondly bigger fields are more likely to be run at a "true" pace.

The table below gives a pace average for each distance at Wolverhampton:

Distance	Number of	Winning
	races	Pace average
5f	54	3.31
6f	84	2.98
7f	105	2.82
lmlf *	178	2.60
lm4f	60	2.63
lm6f or more	50	2.52

* lm If results cover two distances - one just below lm If and the other just above lm If.

In order to help readers interpret the table, it should be stated that the average pace figure for each race is around 2.55. Therefore, this is the base figure that one should use when looking at the winning pace averages for individual distances. Hence, the results indicate that over 5 furlongs, horses that race close to the pace have a definite advantage, with a winning pace average of 3.31 (well above 2.55 base figure). However, this advantage tends to diminish as the distance increases.

This theory is backed up when we look at the success of front runners (horses that led early in the race, and led for several furlongs):

Distance	% of winners
	for front
	runners
5f	18.5%
6f	14.3%
7f	14.3%
lmlf *	8.4%
lm4f	13.3%
lm6f or more	2.0%

It can be seen that front runners have been very successful over 5 furlongs with a success rate close to 1 win in 5. Compare this to the success of front runners racing over lm 6f or more with just 1 win from the 50 races studied.

Strategies to implement - from this research I believe there to be two different strategies that can be employed in an attempt to make consistent profits at Wolverhampton.

1. Backing a front runner over 5f - with an 18.5% strike rate for front runners, this looks a sensible strategy. The problem of course is predicting the front runner before the race. My personal approach is to produce individual horse pace figures using the same criteria as I use for calculating the course pace averages. Using a horse's last three races, I award between 1 and 5 points depending on the formbook comments they have earned, and then calculate an average. For example, a horse that has led in both his last 2 races, but was "held up" in the third, would get a pace figure average of 4 (5+5+2 =12; then divide by 3).

These figures can then be used to try to decide who is going to front run. Of course the horse with the highest pace figure is not guaranteed to lead, and other factors like the draw come into account. Hence, let us look at an example from earlier this year with a 5f handicap run at Wolverhampton on 27^th February 2006. It was a 12 runner race and the pace figures for each horse were as follows:

Mountain Pass 5.00	Almaty Express 4.33	Canadian Danehill 4.33
Hammer of the Gods 3.67	El Potro 3.33	Fizzlephut 3.33
Caustic Wit 3.00	Gone 'N' Dunnett 2.67	Mambazo 2.67
Rover Fever 2.67	Domirati 2.00	Namir 1.00

Horses with a pace figure of over 4.00 must have led in at least one of their races and therefore, this race seemed to have three potential front runners - Mountain Pass (5.00), Almaty Express (4.33) and Canadian Danehill (4.33). Further inspection of their recent runs showed that Mountain Pass had led in each of his last three runs, but all the races had been maidens. Maidens are generally much less competitive than handicaps and hence easier for a front runner to lead. This detail, coupled with the fact this was Mountain Pass's first handicap race, made it less likely he would lead. He also was drawn in seven, whereas Almaty Express and Canadian Danehill were drawn nearer the inside rail in stalls 4 and 2 respectively. Hence it seemed more likely that either Almaty

Express or Canadian Danehill would lead. It was difficult to split the pair and decide which horse would lead, but there were two additional factors that helped with that decision. The presence of Darryll Holland on Almaty Express was a positive as not only does he ride well from the front, the last time he had ridden Almaty Express the previous August, the horse had won making all the running. Another fact in Almaty Express's favour was that he was a genuine 5f sprinter, whereas Canadian Danehill races between 5 and 7f. Therefore, Almaty Express looked the most likely front runner, and that would have proved a sound decision as Almaty Express not only led early, he "made all" winning at the juicy price of 14/1.

Of course, races do not always pan out as well as this, and as we have seen, according to the stats the front runner will win only 18.5% of the time in these 5f races. However, with a bit of hard work, (calculating the horse pace averages, taking into account the draw and other factors), punters will put themselves in a position where profits can be made. If you had correctly predicted the front runner in all the 5f handicaps at Wolverhampton since October 2004 (10 or more runners), you would have made an 18.33 point profit (+33.9%). This is assuming you had backed every single one of course!

To help one profit further, no horse drawn wider than eight managed to "front run" and win. Hence if your research pointed to the most likely front runner being drawn 9 to 13, then you could have confidently left the race alone. That would have eliminated several losers, increasing profits in the process.

An alternative approach would be to bet "in running" and wait for the first furlong to be run and back the leader with around 4 furlongs to go. The advantage of this is that you will virtually always pick the right horse (the front runner), the disadvantage would be that you might have to take a slightly shorter price about the horse in question.

2. Laying a front runner over lm6f or more - the stats generated earlier showed that at lm 6f or more, the front runner managed to win only once in 50 races. Hence, using reverse psychology to our first strategy, it seems logical to lay front runners in these long-distance events. The beauty of this idea, is that you do not need do any research before the race; simply wait for the race to start, see how the first 3 or 4 furlongs unfold and simply lay the horse that is leading. Simple, eh? Another advantage of this strategy is that the horse in question should be trading at a lower price than when the race started. Hence, if you are unlucky enough to watch the horse "make all", then the chances are you would have been able to lay at under starting price. That will limit any losses considerably. Indeed, the longer you can leave it before laying the horse the better.

Employing this strategy over the past 2 season would have yielded a profit of 40 points (+80%), assuming you were able to lay the one winning front runner at SP.

PROFITING FROM PULLERS

Mark Littlewood

How many of you were on New Approach for the Derby? If you were, how did you feel after 4f? Tempted to lay off your bet? I couldn't criticise you if you had as pullers have a very poor record in a race once they have started fighting for their head and New Approach was clearly giving his jockey a hard time. The fact that he overcame this, and some trouble in running in the straight, marks him down in my book as a very special horse. In fact if he is now to be trained for middle distance races and learns to settle he could be as good as anything we have seen over the trip for some time.

If pullers are such bad bets within the race they are pulling in, what kind of bets do they offer when reappearing after lengthening their jockey's arms? It is quite possible that pulling is a forgivable trait and if a horse can settle much better in its next run, there may be a possibility that the puller is under-bet.

Taking a look at all horses over the last nine years on the flat that 'pulled hard' in their previous race we have the following next time out results:

Bets Wins PL ROI%

7083 663 -1799.3 -25.4%

If we now focus on only those that subsequently went off at less than 8/1 we have:-

Bets Wins PL ROI%

2093 451 +1.6 +0%

Looking for some further improvement on these figures I decided to check for horses that had pulled hard on their previous run for the first time in my records. This could signal an inexperienced horse or a one off occurrence, both of which might be more likely to be corrected next time out. The figures were:-

ROI% + 3%

A return of 3% is quite respectable to SP and with some prudent odds checking I am sure the above would have returned around +12%.

Keep a forgiving eye open for these runners on the flat as the public seem to be under-betting them next time out. Here are a few of the more recent pullers.

Grey Boy Appalachian Trail Sakhees Song Spell Caster Moonstreaker Aegean Prince Ceka Dancer

MAKING A PROFIT WITH SPREAD

BETTING

Alex Yitlle

This article will give you some tips on making money in the spread betting market with particular reference to the horse racing side as that's what the majority of smartersig members seem interested in. I make a steady income from this and I make no apology for not telling you exactly how I do it or which markets I specialise in. This is also why this is not written under my real name. I have no wish for the spread betting firms I deal with to get wind of how I work. My objective is to keep a low profile. The only reason I'm writing this is that you guys have provided me with a great deal of help, albeit sometimes unwittingly so, therefore I can hopefully give a bit back.

I know you have some very fancy guys with figures and statistics so I won't waste reams of space with formulae backing up what I say. If they want to check the mathematics then feel free. I know it all works.

Firstly, from the point of view of the betting firms, setting up a spread market is much easier to do than running a book on a race. This is due to the following: if you balance the money from the buyers and sellers then it doesn't matter where the market makes up. Further more you, as a market maker, are guaranteed to make the amount you have matched times the size of your spread whatever the result.

Take this example: say you as a market maker believe that the distances at Wolves will make up to 9 lengths for a meeting. So you put it up at 8.5 to sell; 9.5 to buy? Maybe not. If you believe that there will be more buyers than sellers then you might put it up at 8.8-9.8. You might even put it up at 9.1-10.1. Even if you are giving the punters "a good thing" it is worth doing that to make a balanced book. Of course you can take a position but why do that when you can just try and balance your book? Another problem your market maker has is that of arbitrages. I'll talk more about that from the punters' view later.

For the market makers arbitrages are not a great idea as they can cause greatly unbalanced books.

For example, consider I'm the market maker for say Spreadex and I'm ready to put Wolves up at 8.5 - 9.5. IG index and Sportinglndex have already put their prices up and I discover they are at 7.5 - 8.5 and 7.3-8.3 respectively. If I put up at 8.5 -9.5 then all that will happen is all the punters with accounts with Spreadex and Sportinglndex have to do is buy at 8.3 with Sportinglndex and sell at 8.5 with me. They then are guaranteed 0.2 times their stake profit whatever happens. Now it might be they take their profit from Sportinglndex rather than me but they will be trying to back in large lumps so I'm going to have a very risky book. So I open 8.3-9.3 or even 8.0-9.0.

The key here is that from the market making point of view the first principle is to balance your book. Getting it "right" is relatively unimportant. If you look at any racing market - lengths, SP's, feather weights, double numbers or whatever - they very rarely finish up within the spreads offered. And this, my brothers, is the great advantage that we have in spread betting over the bet to win brigade. You look at how good SP is at assessing the chance of a horse winning. The stats boys argue whether SP is related to the real chance of winning by a straight line, logs or the phases of the moon. All I can say it's too close and accurate for me. So as long as the spread-betting firms can balance their markets they don't give a stuff about which horse wins or how many lengths it wins by. If it does drop in the spread then all well and good -it's a bonus for them.

How does that help us the poor punter? Well for a start spread firms are concerned about balancing, not the result. So if we have a method that can predict a result for a given market then we have a fighting chance of getting some money on. Furthermore the firm may be quite happy with us doing so. Happy to pay out; how so?

Consider the SP market; say I reckon Wolverhampton will make up to 34. I look at Sporting Index and they're offering 34-37 and the other markets are worse from my point of view. Then suddenly they offer 35-38. The reason they're doing that is that they have had a lot of buys and need some sell money to balance and to deter the buyers. Bargain. In we go sell at 35. I'm happy, they're happy. Why are they happy? Because whatever the outcome they are now guaranteed to make two times my stake and they've reduced their liabilities on all the buys at 37. I'm happy because I'm betting at a point advantage.

A point advantage I hear you say, that's not much. Agreed, in January I made 160 points. I don't discuss money but even at £1 a point it's not to be sneezed at.

However with spread betting your advantage is sacrosanct and you must never ever compromise on it. I've seen you racing boys, "I'll bet Loppylugs if he's at 10/1". You hang around the ring and he barely touches 9's. Finally, in desperation you put on your £50 at 9's. He duly loses. You're £50 adrift but that would have been the same if you'd have got him at 10's. It always amuses me when you seem to blame the loss on failing to get 10/1 instead of the fact the horse was a donkey. Thus, getting the best price only matters to your pocket if the horse wins.

Now consider us spread bettors. I decide to bet £5 a point on double numbers at Warwick. I reckon they will make up to 84. Below are the prices:

Sportinglndex	80	84
IGindex	78	82
Spreadex	76	80
Spreadfair	80	84
Sports Spread	80	84

Now let's say I take a buy on IGindex at 82 instead of the 80 I can get with Spreadex. If the bet wins I will win £10 less than I could have done. If it loses I also pay out £10 more than I could have done. For spread bettors, taking a worse price guarantees either a bigger loss or smaller win.

So you need accounts with all the spread betting firms you can conveniently find. I have accounts with all those listed above. If you just have an account with Sportinglndex say to try it out you might as well be boxing with one hand behind your back. You need all the accounts. You need to take the best price. To do this you also need a good fast broadband connection and some fine judgement as to where the prices are moving. The good news is I don't always get it right either and neither will you but a point here and a point there soon mount up.

So you've got all your accounts. What markets should we try? There is a great temptation to try the 50/30/20/10 or 50/25/10 horse performance markets, as these are nearly the same as betting on horses that you are used to. I would try and avoid them if you can as these markets are difficult. For example in a 50/30/20/10 market you need to be thinking about the chance of your horse coming. 4^th. To me that is very difficult. The very betting markets from which we're trying to escape also drive these markets. My suggestions for racing; in no particular order are Jockey performances, Top of the card, SP's, winning distances, double numbers and favourites index. I would suggest you pick one of these and get to know about it. Not only do you have to build up a way of predicting the outcome, but you also need to be able to anticipate how the market moves. For example a non-runner can cause the SP market to drop but if the horse is an odds-on favourite the market can rise. If the going gets softer the distance market often moves higher.

Now you need to understand your betting firms. Below is a potted biography of each of the above firms.

Sporting Index - They are usually first up with the prices and are the only company to offer aggregate markets over a whole days racing. These markets are useful, as sometimes they don't update them as fast as they do the other markets. They have a strange system whereby you are told you can only put £15 on a bet but then having put that on you can put another £10 on straight after. They offer a 100-point stop loss on some bets, which is generally useless. They are very fast to settle. They offer credit facilities.

IGIndex - They are second up with the prices. Probably the best dealing screens. They give a 50-point stop loss on some bets. For example take SP's. Thus if you sell at 60 and the meeting makes up to 130 you only have to pay 50 not 70. In return for this you must deposit enough to cover your bets with IGIndex. Their prices are generally not the most extreme, but they are good at taking larger bets.

Spreadex. - Generally third to the fray. To balance this they are often willing to offer early prices away from the big two. Dealing is slower and they sometimes will knock you back with a change of quote. You try to buy at 60 and they will only let you buy at 61. They have less markets than the big two. However, they do well in the arbitrage hunting of which more later. They offer credit facilities.

Sports Spread. Smaller and slower than all the rest. They insist on relaying every trade to a trader, which is slow. They are very conservative and rarely offer the best prices. They have stop loss and heaven forfend stop win so you can only win a maximum number of points. So why have the account? See later!

Cantor Spreadfair. This is a strange animal. It is supposed to be a spread betting exchange. Like Betfair buyers and sellers are supposed to offer prices and Spreadfair takes a commission 4-5% of any winning trades. If this is an exchange I am a Dutchman. All the prices appear at the same time. The amounts are suspiciously balanced. There are one or two little oddities that offer £1 prices before the main amounts appear. If one were cynical, one would say it was Spreadfair's own money. On the good news the spreads are much smaller here than with the other accounts. For example the normal spread for double numbers is 4 points say 80-84 whereas on Spreadfair it could be 81-81.5. Good for arbitrage but only four markets for each meeting.

You need to read all the rules about your market. What happens if a meeting's abandoned? What happens with dead heats? What is the stop loss for my market? Does the stop loss cut in during the market or only at the end?

Now, on to free money known as arbitrage. The best markets to achieve that are those with a smaller spread. If the market has a four spread you will need two markets whose midpoints are 5 apart in order to get an arbitrage so this is pretty unlikely.

When do the spreads get smaller? At the end of the day as meetings draw to a close for example Jockey performances go down to a spread of 2. It only needs a fat finger by the price setter or a run of money on one firm and off we go.

Let say we find W.Marston 5-6 on IGindex while he's 7-8 on Spreadex. What do we do? Obviously buy on IGindex and sell on Spreadex. Now a keynote here is not to be too greedy. You cannot put the bets on at exactly the same time. It's going to be financially embarrassing if you get the sell on with Spreadex and then find the price has gone to 6.5-7.5 with IGindex. If you've dumped £100 a point on you could be looking at an £1800 loss were Mr Marston to pick up a winner. Close it off and you're down £50. Also, always put the buy bit on first, as that way you can often limit your downside if it all turns pear shaped. I bet at most 4 units on arbitrages. That way I do keep off the spread firms' radar while still picking up some free money. Another practical problem with large arbitrages is they can leave you financially unstable. For instance, taking the example above assume we put £100 on both sides of Mr. Marston. If he gets a winner then our Spreadex account is -£1800 while our IGindex account is up £1900. Transferring money to firms is quick but getting it back can take several days. You could find you were missing trades while your accounts were rebalanced.

The other beauty of arbitrage is that it doesn't matter what the market is. You can create quite a nice screen of your main activities while an assortment of small inter firm arbitrages bounce your money around.

It is worth mentioning Cantor Spreadfair here as they often are a good source of arbitrages particularly on distances. However remember the 5% take on winning bets. Arbitrage with them is not as guaranteed as with the other firms. For example, if there is a big mark up then the win less deduction may not cover the loss with the other firm.

However by trying to arbitrage at the end of meetings the mark-up is less likely to be large. (Unless that 100/1 shot wins the last!)

Sporting Index can provide another arbitrage opportunity as they do aggregate markets for a whole days racing. These are not updated after the start of racing but are often not updated much before either. It's worth looking for distance and SP arbitrages where you buy individual markets with Cantor Spreadfair and sell the aggregate on Sporting Index.

Keeping a low profile is a good idea. Spread betting firms will close your account if you are making big hits or are too aggressive. I run a staking system (thanks for this boys), which means that my bet values vary. Also if I have several firms offering the same price I will try and split my bet between them. See that's why SportsSpread are kept on.

What do you need from your prediction method? Other than accuracy it should have the following features. It should produce unambiguous results from unambiguous easily available data. It should be quick. I don't want some computer program that takes 10 minutes to refit the data when a horse is withdrawn at Newton Abbott. Most importantly it should be able to take results that have already occurred in the market to predict the final outcome of the market.

For example say I am doing lengths at Exeter. I bought them at 42 and after three races they are quoted at best at 60-64. Should I sell and take my 18-point profit? If my model predicts they should make up to 63 taking into account what has already occurred then I'm better off sitting tight as on average I'll be 3 points better off. However if my model says the final make up should be 58 taking the first three races into account then I should sell at 60.

You can also pick up opportunities to bet during the day. Say you are betting double numbers and the initial quote is 70-74 and your model predicts 71 then there is no trade. However after four races the market is now 48-50 and your model predicts 51. You should now buy at 50.

You must have total confidence in your model. If you are trying to fudge the answers, "It says 8 lengths but I reckon there is a head wind so I'll add a bit on," then stop and go and redesign the model to include the wind properly.

Confidence in yourself and the model is vital as spread betting is very volatile. With mark-ups of several hundred points possible in some markets for example Sporting Index Multimules you need to be very confident your model and you will grind out a result in the end. When you've sold favourites and every one on an eight-runner card has won it can be very lonely.

Dealing in more than one market can help with this but as I previously said specialisation is a key skill. You need to know your markets, your model and your betting inside out.

You also need to check all your bets. I've had errors made by all the firms. Generally, by using the wrong mark-up or sometimes just a simple calculation error. To their credit when this is pointed out it is corrected without demure.

The final thing about spread betting is no one will appreciate it. You can't go to the pub and say "I sold Southwell distances at 9 and they made up to 3" whereas you can say "I had a 10/1 winner at Ludlow today" and they'll understand what's going on.

You'll get some really odd looks at the race course as you cheer home the 66/1 outsider like a dervish and when asked "how much do you have on him then?" you reply "Nothing but I've bought SP's".

One of the regular features in the old Smartsig magazine was the KISS system page. I am assuming that it meant "keep it simple stupid". I thought for this edition I would offer such a flat system that may prove profitable to follow in the future. It has proved profitable over the period of study from 2000 to 2007.

Well beaten LTO KISS

Rules

1. Must be top rated by Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed.

2. Forecast favourite in the Racing Post

3. Beaten at least 6 lengths LTO

4. Age of horse 3 to 6yo

5. Off the track 79 days or less

The results from 2000 to 2007

Qualifiers 825 Wins 311

Strike Rate 37.7%

Profit +£114.15 (to £1 level stakes)

ROI +13.8%

Essentially this is a very easy to apply system assuming you get the Racing Post or use the online version of the paper. It seems unlikely that a horse who was beaten by at least 6 lengths last time out will be forecast favourite AND top rated by both of the two main ratings systems of the Racing Post. However, on average just over 100 horses match this criteria each year, and the overall results are very encouraging. 7 of the last 8 years have seen the system in profit.

Adding an extra filter or two can make the profit margin improve a little but we are looking for a system with very few rules and hence I am happy to stick with what we have got. Next month I will offer a 2yo KISS that has been profitable over the past years.

THE NEWMARKET WIZARDS III

Interview with Alan Potts

This months interview is with book author, TV pundit, WBX columnist and most importantly long time successful pro punter Alan Potts.

How did you first get interested in horse racing and betting?

Betting was always something I enjoyed from an early age - pontoon with my uncles, sixpence each way on the National, checking my Dad's football pools, all from the age of six or seven onwards. The legalisation of betting shops came when I was 14, so the timing was perfect for a teenager that liked to bet. I was a maths whizz at school and that side of betting and racing was part of the appeal. I saw my first horse race live when I was playing cricket one Monday evening on a ground in the centre of the loop at Alexandra Palace near my home in North London - the horses effectively raced round the boundary and it looked a lot more exciting than cricket. I went back a week later and that was my first race meeting - I was aged 14. Within two years I was working in the local betting shop on Saturdays and during the school holidays.

How successful or unsuccessful were you when you first started to bet regularly; did you serve the typical losing apprenticeship?

I went through all the usual phases of form book, systems, tipsters, and pins. Losing was certainly my normal experience through the 60s and 70s. Like all punters I remember the winners, but only once did I win enough to actually justify all the effort. The autumn of 1976 was very wet after a drought and I had a golden two months backing soft ground performers who had no form because the ground had been rock hard all summer. The winnings helped to pay for new furniture and a car (a Triumph TR6, one of my lifelong ambitions). I'd say it took me twenty years to learn how to consistently break even and another five to become a regular winner.

Twenty years sounds familiar to me. Looking back do you think there could have been a shorter route to finding a consistently profitable approach?.

Given the lack of educational material available in that era and the paucity of information, I can't think of anything that would have made much difference. The internet has changed betting, but it's far more important as a source of information when combined with the ability to use computers to analyse that information. The amount of time that would have been needed to collect information, let alone do the research, simply wasn't practical alongside a full time job and a reasonable social life. It's indicative of the lack of sophistication of the 70s that I could actually win money (occasionally) just by identifying a small group of horses that relished soft ground. To give an example, I saw a filly called Lucent hack up in a soft ground maiden at Doncaster on TV as a 2-y-old. The following summer, she turned up in the entries for a handicap at a Windsor evening meeting I was planning to attend. It rained all day before the racing and I backed her with total confidence - but I'd guess 90%+ of punters had no idea that she was better on soft ground, because the only way to know was to have remembered that race from the previous year.

Could you cite any pivotal moments or influences in your early regular betting life that shaped your style and approach to successful betting?

The first bet that persuaded me there was a pattern that I could interpret was at my beloved Aly Pally. It was spring 1969, the horse was called Little Earwig - he'd finished second over the course and distance and was a few pounds better off with the winner. I was sure he could reverse the form and had £30 at 100/30 with a course bookie (to put that sum in perspective, I bought a new house later that year and my monthly mortgage payment was £39). He won OK, although I can't remember any other winners from 1969 and I doubt if the £100 lasted very long!

How would you summarise your style of betting. J get the impression that you are not a systems man but someone who is confident and relies on his own judgment about what is a good bet.

Inevitably it's changed a lot over the years, but the basics since I stopped being a loser have been to watch a lot, listen a little, ignore 'inside information', be cynical about hype and rely on my own judgement. My ideal was always to go for the big return, so that when I found a decent priced winner, the profit was substantial and worthwhile.

What would be a typical betting day for you - e.g.- 10.00pm compile list of contenders, 8.00am compile odds line, 10.00am check betfair prices etc etc etc

Not more than two hours early morning with the form book, often a lot less - by watching all the racing, I find I can absorb a lot of information that I don't have to look up again. My current approach, which is almost the total opposite of what I've done most of my life, is to concentrate on short priced horses, either backing or laying them on Betfair. So the first task is to identify the races I'm interested in and all the 3/1 the field handicaps get the chop immediately. Then focus on the favourite and establish the positives and negatives for that horse - using form, time, draw, going, stable form, jumping ability etc to set a target price. Then check prices on BF and monitor the markets up to the start of racing. I watch most racing, although I might draw the line at some of the low grade evening meetings and I'm constantly looking for horses of interest for next time (positive or negative) and for patterns in the racing that might indicate any form of bias on the track. A typical example of that would be horses running well from a bad draw or vice versa. I have a method of splitting big field results by draw to see if any horse stands out - e.g. in a 16 runner race, look at the horses drawn 1 - 8 as if that was a separate race. If one horse from that group beat the other seven by a wide margin, he's almost certainly run better than the bare result of the overall race suggests. I also reserve up to an hour per day for a review of races and bets and I do a weekly round up on Sunday or Monday. As a general rule, I don't bet on Monday or Tuesday and keep those days clear as my 'weekend'.

Do you have any particular methods or approaches to handling a bad run of results. Could you give an example of a typical poor run e.g. time span, bets, pts lost.

Not difficult to find an example of a losing run as I'm on one at present! I made around £50k in 2004 and 2005, £20k in 2006 and was over £30k up for 2007 at the end of last October. Since then I've had two winning months that produced less than £lk profit between them and the other three months have seen a loss of £20k. At the time of writing, April 2008 is level. So I'm down over £19k for the last six months. I handle that by sticking to my approach, recognising that there's nothing very unusual about such a run. My experience over the last 20 years is that profit comes in bursts and that much of the time I'm either treading water or losing slowly. Losing an average of £3k per month over a six month period is no surprise, although it's the longest such period I've experienced for several years. I use what I guess a shrink would call positive reinforcement - I go back to times when I won big, watch the videos of those races, read my account books and diaries, all with the intention of reminding myself what is possible. I'll also take a short break from betting to get negative thoughts out of my system - I did that most recently the week after Aintree earlier this month.

Does it not worry you that the week after Aintree could have been a superb week for you or do you feel during these periods that your judgement needs a rest and therefore the break is unavoidable?.

I'm certain that regular breaks from betting are essential (although perhaps my age is an influence - I turned 60 last August). When I started out full time in 1991, there was no Sunday racing, far fewer evening meetings and generally less racing than there is today. Also, since like almost all professionals then, I bet on course, by only going racing three or four days per week, the workload was kept manageable. With the volume of racing we have now, I'm quite sure that keeping mentally fresh is a big help - sit and do this seven days per week, 52 weeks of the year and you'd go stir crazy. Read the BF forum any day for evidence! It's possibly a harsh judgement, but I feel that most losing punters go on losing because they never stop to actually think about what they are doing (and of course the non stop nature of the 'product' these days is designed to achieve exactly that).

My impression of your betting is perhaps one of quality rather than quantity. I believe in the past you have averaged around 300 - 400 bets a year. Is this correct or has it changed.

Fifteen years ago, soon after I turned full time and was doing almost all my betting on course, I had around 300 bets in a year and concentrated on the better racing. Ten years ago, that was still the same, with the addition of spread betting as an off course activity that provided useful profits for a short period (a couple of years) until the firms effectively removed my edge. Five years ago, the high stake single win bet at 'value' prices was still my staple, but the internet was changing the world, the on course market was suffering and I could see that I needed to alter my approach. Now, I've given up the high stakes single win, mostly because I could no longer find the value, such has been the impact of the exchanges and the limitless supply of information available to punters. I work almost exclusively with short priced horses on BF, because that's where the liquidity is greatest and that's where an edge can still be found. If this losing run continues for a few more months, I'll have to think again! Betting on course is no longer an option, as away from the big meetings, there isn't the money there any more, the bookies I knew and worked with have mostly retired or sold up and the costs of travel and admission (time as well as money) are now a significant factor. Why spend three hours in my car on the motorway to stand in the cold and wet taking worse prices than I could get in my office at home in the warm and dry? So I have changed from a high stakes low turnover punter to a low stakes, high turnover player on the exchanges. To clarify that, by high stakes I mean backing horses to win five to ten thousand, by low stakes I mean laying them to lose £400 to £500. On average I bet around thirty races per week, so I'm turning over more money and accepting a lower percentage return.

I can see why you are laying at the shorter end but does this mean you are also backing at the shorter end of the market, using the exchanges to grind out a smaller return but on a higher turnover.

Yes - at a rough estimate, I'm turning over about £750,000 per annum and making around 4% after commission averaged over the last five years. The split of laying to backing would be around 70/30 and the back bets do still include horses outside the short price range, but to much smaller stakes than I would have used on course. The basic method is to ensure the maximum loss on a race cannot exceed a set limit (currently £500) - the betting on a race might include more than one lay, or a mix of back and lay on different horses.

I know you bet on horse racing, do you bet on other events. How about laying and trading, do they play any significant part in your activities?

I have dabbled with various sports, but never at the same level as my betting on racing. Just occasionally a price will catch my eye - at the start of this football season, I took the 6/4 for Reading to finish in the bottom six and that looks like producing a profit that will help the account for May. But that's the only football bet I've had in the last 12 months - I don't bet on individual matches.

What do you see as the key characteristics needed in a successful professional gambler?

Self confidence, belief, arrogance - call it what you will, but if you harbour doubts about your ability to succeed, you will fail. The ability to take the long term view - the idea (commonly debated on the BF forum) that you can set a target to win so much per day is frankly laughable. It's one thing to have a target of £x thousand per year and then calculate what that means in daily terms, but to say, I'll win £x today and then stop is plain daft. The mental strength to deal with the negative view that most of society will take of your chosen profession. There are no estate agents advertising million pound houses in the Surrey professional punter belt. Flexibility - what worked then doesn't work now, what works now probably won't work by 2012.

What are your tools of the trade so to speak. What range of facilities and by that J mean visuals, ratings, books and anything else that contributes to your daily profession.

Racing Post delivered by the local wholesale depot at 6 a.m. Timeform Perspective delivered by post. Laptop with broadband, with the Post website, Betfair and the BHA website (only available as I'm an owner, but useful as best source of going reports, non runners, entries and declarations) as the main sites used. Sky via satellite dish for ATR and RUK. Total cost of these things around £2200 per annum. All fairly simple and basic - I don't bet in running, so I've not found any need to use an interface with Betfair. I stick to paper for the Post and Perspective as I spend enough time gazing at a computer screen already. The key piece of equipment is the one inside my skull!

There will always be a nucleus of people contemplating becoming a full time pro' in the betting world. What are the positives and negatives of such a working life style?

The positives are much as they always were - freedom from routine, the feeling of doing something that is beyond most people, the pleasure of turning a hobby into a living. The negatives, especially in the modern era - solitude, the hours spent in front on a computer screen and a TV, the difficulty of going back if things don't work out.

Finally, if I presented in front of you a willing wannabe professional punter (horse racing), who is the type of punter who doesn't lose a lot over the year but cannot quite break into the regular profit zone. What advice would you offer such a person? Are there any simple tips that might improve the bottom line by the required amount?

Make a plan - what races will you bet on, how many bets, what stakes etc. You can't start any business without a plan and this one is no different. Specialise - it's old advice, but it's still valid. Analyse -especially analyse your losers post race. Is there a pattern that you can break out of and either stop making so many losing bets, or even turn some of them into winners. It goes without saying that this sort of analysis depends on you having proper records of your bets. When I became a full time punter, I found after five years that I was backing the same number of winners per annum, but fewer losers - and that was the key difference in my accounts.

Readers Questions Any plans for another book?

No - the publisher of the other two went into liquidation seven years ago owing me five grand in royalties and I haven't seen a penny from any copies that have been sold since then. So I learned my lesson - the only people that make money from books are publishers and retailers.

Hi Alan, being a pro punter do you have to pay tax on your profit?

No, gambling winnings are tax free, as confirmed to me by a cousin that has a very senior post with the Inland Revenue. I do pay tax on any earnings from other sources, such as my writing.

How did you come to own CD Europe> and is this the start of you entering more horse ownership? How did the pro punter adapt to the role of owner?

I don't own CD Europe. I don't own Sizing Europe either, which I suspect is the one you meant. The owner of that horse and many others with similar names trained in Ireland is called Alan Potts, but he's a Yorkshire born businessman who owns a company that makes an essential piece of mining equipment called a sizer, hence the names chosen for his horses. I have got used to being mistaken for him, but I understand he's get very pissed off when he's asked for tips! The horses I'm involved with run in the name of the Golden Anorak Partnership, a joke name based on a headline over an interview with me in the now defunct magazine Sports Advisor.

Alan> how many actual pro gamblers do you know of, secondly, how many of them have no other income such as tipsters, owners, pundit?. All the well known faces we see on the tv each have one of the above to supplement their income.

By direct contact on the racecourse during the 90s, I'd guess I know about twenty and most of those have no other source of income. By indirect contact via email or the net, I know another twenty and none of them has any secondary income of the sort you describe. None of those people are what you'd call wealthy, some have been unable to maintain a sufficient income from betting and have returned to other work, most are still going strong. I've no idea how many people in this country now live entirely off the proceeds of gambling, but I'd guess that if you include sports betting and online poker, we're talking hundreds, possibly more than a thousand.

Hi Alan> I have enjoyed your books and thanks for this interivew. Do you have any advice on staking systems?

Firstly, be consistent - don't bet £5 one day, £100 the next, don't bet £5 on the 10/1 shot and £100 on the evens favourite. Secondly, be realistic -ensure that your level of staking matches your resources. If your betting bank is £1000, then you probably shouldn't be betting more than £50 per bet. If you bet a bigger percentage, you greatly increase the chances of losing the entire bank. I'm not a fan of staking systems as such, where the amount bet is decided by the result of the previous bet (or series of bets), rather than the amount bet being based on the degree of confidence you have in that bet, which could also be called the 'value' you see in the bet. For single win bets I've always used set minimum and maximum bets, where the minimum is set high enough to ensure that you don't bet the minimum just for some action. For lay bets on the exchanges, I use a maximum loss per race, so that even if I lose on several consecutive races, my total loss is contained and the maximum loss figure also discourages me from chasing.

Do you still think there is still an edge on the all weather tracks as regards speed figures, draw etc. as outlined in your books?

No, the arrival of Polytrack everywhere barring Southwell has altered the other tracks beyond all recognition. If you watched the film of a meeting from Lingfield in the 90s now, it would look utterly bizarre. I have some old videos of races there and the distances between the horses at the finish, the riding tactics, the pace and the kickback all show how different it is now. In my view, Polytrack is close enough to turf that there is hardly any difference - if they dyed it green, most punters would be far less anti-AW than they are at present! Just like turf, Polytrack promotes a moderate pace, a bunched finish and luck in running. It isn't as good a surface for punters as the old tracks were, and speed figures don't work on it in my experience. There are some draw biases still at sprint trips, but they are fairly obvious and the market takes them into account. Southwell remains the exception, but with horses switching from there to Polytrack and back again, there's insufficient consistency to get any benefit from speed figures. The two obvious draw biases at Southwell are to avoid high drawn horses over 5F (those next to the stands rail) and avoid horses drawn one over 7F and 1M. All the evidence points to a build up of loose material close to the rails that make the middle of the course a shade quicker.

FREE WINE, LUNCH and YANKEES

John F. Jackson

Whether my brother was dropping a subtle hint about the wine I served for Saturday lunch or not I never discovered. He asked whether I knew about the Virgin Wine Club, of which he was a member. Superior quality he thought. I find TESCO "£7.99 reduced to £3.99 with a further 5% reduction for 6 bottles" sauvignon blanc is perfectly fine for my everyday ration. However, interest was doubled when he revealed Virgin's patriotic offer of a free case with each purchased, should England beat South Africa in that weekend's rugby World Cup clash. He liked the idea of £60 worth of wine for nothing ... but had decided not to buy in case England lost (in case, get it? Oh never mind.) South Africa's best price on Betfair was 1.45 so I asked "would you buy a case if you were guaranteed a reduction £18?" Yes was the reply. "So back South Africa £40 at 1.45 recouping £18 if they win (but no second case). Should England win receive a second case valued at £60 for the loss of the £40 bet, a £20 gain." This option proved more palatable than the gamble and presumably TESCO vin de table.

The Problem Posed

At about the same time an email group member asked how he should handle a special offer from a bookmaker: a free yankee if the original yankee ended up with only one winner. The general group advice was to steer away from all such enticements: all bets involving multiples are the work of the devil. Whilst admittedly not without some danger there are methods which will yield a certain return regardless of the results, in just the same way as the wine offer. Rather than plunge in with the full solution I am going to follow Steve Tilley's helpful suggestion and look at a simpler problem to illustrate the necessary techniques...

The Free Double

Suppose a bookmaker allows a bet of an initial double with the offer a free double should the original only include one winner. If for the sake of argument we use a price of EVENS, or decimal 2.00, for both runners

then we win 3 stakes with two winners and lose a stake for the three outcomes winner/loser, loser/winner and two losers. Assuming further that EVENS is a fair price then all four outcomes are equally likely, having probability 1/4. Our expected return is thus:

(l/4)(+3)+(l/4)(-l)+(l/4)(-l)+(l/4)(-l) = 0

on the initial bet, with the bonus of a free double after only one winner and the possibility of profit. Just as in our free wine problem we would prefer to win every time, not just when the bonus is up.

Dynamic Hedging

To begin let us ignore the bonus and try to place hedging bets in addition to the double so that we break even no matter what. The solution can be represented by a binomial tree:

Fig.l Breaking Even

On the extreme left is the first leg of the double, splitting into two branches: up for a win and down for a loss. The initial bank is 0 and we make a bet of -1 i.e. we lay the first runner for a single stake.

Looking at the centre of Fig. 1 we find two possible situations. After an initial winner our hedging bank has reduced to -1. If we lay the second runner for 2 stakes and it wins our cumulative losses will mount to 3 stakes, a bank of -3. However this will be balanced by the winning double which nets 3 stakes, so we end up all-square. If the second runner loses then we recover both the first hedging bet's loss of a stake and the losing stake for the double. Again we end up all-square.

After an initial loss the hedging bet has recovered the cost of the losing double. Our work is done and there is no need for further hedges.

Dynamic Programming

While this solution for a simple problem can be verified by inspection it has been plucked out of the air and is of no help in solving problems generally. It is an example of dynamic programming, a mathematical tool that typically works by stepping back in time. Let us try the problem again starting from the final bet. Suppose the first leg of the double won and we wish to arrange matters to have lost 3 hedging stakes if the second bet wins, and win 1 hedging stake should the last selection lose. Our problem is the top right hand corner of Fig. 1:

Fig. 2 Final bet after a win

So what wager at EVENS would result in a final cumulative hedging loss of 3 stakes with a win, or leave us with a gain of 1 stake for a loss? And what hedging bank would this imply? Well the difference between banks of -3 and +1 is 4 stakes. Betting at EVENS means a wager of 2 stakes. It must be a lay for the bank to reduce on a win. The bank midway between -3 and +1 is clearly -1. Double checking: starting from a bank of -1 and laying 2 stakes reduces the bank to -3 for a win and increases it to +1 for a loss. We can thus complete that top right corner:

Fig. 3 Top right solved

The bottom right corner is trivial: we want to end up with a single stake in any event.

Fig. 4 Final bet after a loss

This can only be achieved by not betting at all and providing we have the single stake in our bank already.

Fig. 5 Bottom right solved

Having solved the final bet we take one step back, here to the start of the problem, but in general the process of stepping back may continue through many stages e.g. when we get to our yankee there will be four steps. At the second step of the double we have to solve:

Fig. 6 First hedge

Hope you're getting the hang of it now: what bet will lose a stake if the runner wins, win a stake if the runner loses and what bank would be required? The gap is two stakes so at EVENS the bet must be one unit. It must be a lay to lose for a winner. The starting bank must be zero which yields:

Fig. 7 First hedge solved

The full solution is actually simple to state: lay the first runner for the stake of the double. If this first runner loses then job done. If the first runner wins lay the second for twice the stake of the double. We have achieved what the finance community call 'replication of the underlying asset'. In other words our hedging process returns the exact opposite of the double and we have attained an important objective of locking in our due returns, albeit in this case zero.

Show Me The Money!

Please study this hedging process and the mechanics of dynamic programming until you achieve some comfort with the technique. It should then become apparent that hedging allows the exponent to alter the shape of returns and that there is a deal of flexibility, always within the limits of due returns, in what the shape might be. To exploit the bookmaker's free double we could hedge as above to break even on the initial double and then enjoy a free bet for those doubles with one winner. Here the returns for the four outcomes of the double are not +3,-1,-1,-1: since the double is free they are +4,0,0,0. If we target our hedge to return -3, 1, 1, 1 we will win 1 stake whatever as follows:

Fig. 8 In the money

The hedging strategy is to lay the first runner for a single stake. If it loses then the venture is concluded. If it wins then lay the second runner for 2 stakes. If this wins too then the cumulative hedging losses of 1+2 = 3 are offset by the winning double of 3 stakes for a net profit of 1 stake.

Since we know we can win 1 stake from a free double we can alter our strategy on the initial double by accepting a smaller win amount on those outcomes containing a single winner. One of many possibilities would be:

Fig. 9 First double strategy

Combined hedging on both the initial double and any available bonus double will generate the following returns:

	WW	WL	LW	LL
Initial Double	3.00	-1.00	-1.00	-1.00
Hedge 1	-2.50	0.50	0.50	1.50
Hedge 2		1.00	1.00
Returns	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50

Fig. 10 Two phase hedging returns

I leave it as an exercise for the reader to find the strategy which will give the same return regardless... but including allowances for commission in the calculation too, especially since more commission is payable if hedging via the free double is exercisable.

The Free Yankee

The dynamic program for a yankee is simply more of the same with four steps instead of two. Using prices of EVENS for each runner the top half of the binomial tree looks like this:

Fig. 11 Yankee dynamic program (top half)

I have printed it back to front so that you can work through the calculations. We see that the starting hedge is a lay of the first runner for 7 stakes (with the yankee requiring 11 stakes).

Is such a strategy a practical proposition? Well it may be subject to mechanical error... then again I don't think placing four bets on Betfair would be too trying. Although the tree is somewhat large any application would never be more than four bets. More critical could be the liquidity of the market for the races involved, the last may call for a lay of 26 stakes. At first sight it might seem that going out on a limb for 61 stakes is not a prospect to relish. Note however that this is equivalent to making a little more than 5 yankee bets. If you made 5 bets could you virtually guarantee to be in profit? I think not, indeed it may take many bets after an initial bad run to recover. Short odds are recommended however: otherwise the numbers will escalate rapidly. The risk of a non-runner, disqualifying the free yankee, is a danger but a revised hedge can limit the loss in the same way that that we managed to break even by mirroring the 'free double' before. Perhaps not something to derive a living from, but worth an experiment if there are no favourable opportunities otherwise. Good practice too for the brain cells and the principles of hedging: there is no better way to learn than with live money and no sharper lesson than making a mistake with the same!

Throughout the whole of this article I have not talked about value, assuming all selections are at true odds. Including value selections would allow one to alter the target profit level. Moreover some profit could be turned from the strategy (courtesy of the free component) providing the bookmaker prices were only slightly unfair (as they are typically at the front of the market). The strategy of picking a near certainty and three no-hopers would fail I think. Selections at 20/1 and upwards are usually such poor value that any gains from the freebie would soon be swallowed up (which is why the offer is there in the first place!).

Your Experiment Here

Hedging strategies are sufficiently flexible to incorporate many treatments. Indeed I would go so far as to venture that for every freebie offered by a bookmaker there is a theoretically profitable hedging plan. Practical is another question to be answered on a case-by-case basis.

Statistical Forecasting Models and Football Match Outcomes

Part I: Introducing Models Based on the Poisson Probability Distribution

Alun Owen

Okay, you're reading this article! So, I will assume therefore, that you have at least a passive interest in statistical models as a tool for forecasting football match outcomes, or you are either interested in using these types of models for betting purposes, or you are in fact interested in developing your own models in this context. Well, I'm an academic statistician, currently researching for a PhD in this area and what I hope to do, over a series of short articles in SmarterSig, is to highlight some of the key published academic research that is in the public domain, which presents details of significant models in this area. In addition, I hope to make this research a little more accessible by attempting to explain some of the key mathematical concepts behind the models presented in that research, and oh yes, I thought I'd tell you a little about my own research along the way.

In this first article, after giving a little background to some of the published research that is out there, I will take a look at the Poisson probability distribution and explain how you can use this as a predictive tool for football match outcomes. I make little assumption about your mathematical ability, apart from the fact that you have at least some degree of numeracy. I guess if you didn't have this you wouldn't be reading this magazine! So whether you know very little or a lot about statistical models and their use in the context of forecasting football match outcomes, hopefully, this article should offer something for everyone.

An overview of some of the Published Research

What do we mean by a statistical forecasting model? Most people will at least be familiar with ratings systems which are in fact a type of statistical model. The idea is that you are using data or other quantitative information, probably on past performances, to effectively 'model' what has happened in the past in order to inform what might happen in the future. In the context of football match outcomes, this typically means collecting information on previous matches to forecast the likelihood of various outcomes occurring in future matches. The type of information we collect may simply be the final results in terms of home win, draw or away win, or the actual final score. However, this information can also include data on other aspects such as shots on target, total number of shots, percentage possession, corners, fouls, etc. The types of outcomes of future matches we might be interested in assessing, could be the probability of a particular score, or the probability of a home win, draw or away win. These models can be used however, to assess probabilities associated with other outcomes, such as the time of the first goal being scored, the total number of goals scored, the number of corners, etc. Given the range of betting opportunities that continue to evolve in the football betting markets, the list of outcomes to consider is considerable.

Much of the published academic research into modeling football match outcomes, has concentrated on the development of models for the number of goals scored. Most of this work is based on the use of probability distributions such as the Poisson distribution or the Negative Binomial distribution. Some of the earliest articles that are still worth reading in this context, are those by Moroney (1956), Colwell and Gillett (1981), Pollard (1985) and Reep et. al. (1971). However, these only looked at modeling the aggregated total number of goals scored by a number of teams over a period of time, usually across an entire league of teams and across a full season. Therefore, as such, they don't describe models that can be used for forecasting the outcomes of future individual matches. However, these articles do demonstrate the use of the Poisson and Negative Binomial probability distributions in the context of data on goals scored in football, and some also attempt to determine which of the two distributions provides the better model for goal data. One of the things I aim to do later in this article is to demonstrate the use of the

Poisson distribution but in the context of forecasting future individual matches.

One of the first published attempts to develop a statistical model of individual match outcomes was by Maher (1982), who indeed based his model on the Poisson probability distribution. This article is probably only really accessible by the more mathematically minded, and so a much easier to read summary of a very similar model can be found in Lee (1998). Apart from being a more readable article, Lee's work provides a little nostalgia for the older ones amongst us, as he applied the model to results from the English Premier League in 1995/1996, when the likes of Wimbledon and QPR were still there and Newcastle finished second! In order to access the material presented in Lee's article and perhaps also the paper presented by Maher, I think one would benefit from an explanation of how this model works and this is indeed one of the aims of this article.

The model originally described by Maher has since formed the basis for similar models developed by a number of authors, most notably Dixon and Coles (1997), which indeed was one of the first published works that attempted to use the derived model for predictive purposes with applications to football betting. Indeed, Dixon and Coles argued that with an appropriate strategy for choosing bets, it is possible to identify matches where the bookmakers offered odds were in the bettor's favour!

Further developments of Maher's and Dixon and Coles' models have since been published in the academic research literature, and indeed it is in this area that my own as yet unpublished PhD research is currently focused! However, I will leave the details of these developments for perhaps a later article?

Other authors have also considered a different type of models, typically referred to as Probit models, that are quite different to those mentioned earlier that use the Poisson distribution. These Probit models have the advantage that they do not need to assume that the goals scored follow any particular probability distribution, since they do not model goals scored. Instead they model the probability of a home win, draw and away win directly. However, this is perhaps for another day and maybe another article entirely. Here we concentrate on models based on the Poisson distribution.

The Poisson Probability Distribution as a tool for Forecasting Football Match Outcomes

We'll illustrate how the Poisson probability distribution can be used in the context of forecasting future football match outcomes, by imagining that we are part way through the coming 2008/2009 season, and Manchester United are due to play at home against newly promoted West Brom. We are interested in assessing the chances of a home win, draw and away win.

Assume that we are able to estimate that if these two teams played each other repeatedly, with Manchester United at home, we expect Manchester United to score an average of ц goals. We'll take a look at how we can derive this estimated average scoring rate, ц, later!

We can use the Poisson probability distribution to calculate the probability that Manchester United scores, say, л-goals as follows:

P(Manchester United score .t goals) = ,

x!

Okay, so for some people this might look a little difficult to comprehend. But if we pick it apart, it basically consists of three parts; ц^х, е» and x! We simply multiply the first two parts together and then divide by the third part.

For example, suppose we estimate Manchester United's average scoring rate to be ц = 2.52. We can then use the previous formula to calculate the probability that Manchester United scores, say, x - 1 goals, by substituting ц = 2.52 and .v = 2 into the formula so that we have:

2.52² xg"^2,52

This then consists of three parts 2.52², e²⁵² and 2!

We'll look at how to calculate each of these parts as follows:

The first of these three parts to the formula is 2.52² which reads as "2.52 raised to the power of 2". This means we need to calculate 2.52², which is 2.52x2.52 which equals 6.3504

Another way of calculating this is to press the following typical keys¹ on your calculator:

Ш 0 I 0

Or alternatively you can use the following Excel formula: =2.52^A2

The second part of the formula is e~^2S2 which reads as "<? raised to the power of minus 2.52". This might look harder to calculate, but e is simply a special number in mathematics like the number к. The number e is approximately 2.718, but most calculators, as well as Microsoft Excel and lots of other software packages, have the number e in its fixed memory. Hence they have the capacity to raise the number e to whatever power you require.

For example, we can calculate e '^1S: by pressing the following typical keys on your calculator:

ЕШ 0

Or alternatively you can use the following Excel formula: =exp(-2.52)

Either way you should get the answer to be 0.0804

The third and final part of the formula is 2! which reads as "2 factorial". The easiest way to explain what we mean by a 'factorial' is to give a few examples as follows:

5 factorial = 5x4x3x2x1 = 120

4 factorial = 4x3x2x1 = 24

3 factorial = 3x2x1 = 6

Hence 2 factorial is simply: 2x1 = 2

You can calculate a factorial on your calculator by pressing the following typical keys:

I0B

Or alternatively you can use the following Excel formula: |=fact(4)|

0

In the same way we can calculate the probability of West Brom scoring any number of goals, whilst playing away against Manchester United. Note that the only difference is that we use West Brom's goal scoring rate in the formula instead of Manchester United's goal scoring rate.

For example suppose we estimate that if West Brom played away to Manchester United repeatedly, we expect West Brom to score an average of ц = 0.48 goals. We simply substitute ц = 0.48 into the formula we looked at earlier instead of ц - 2.52.

The probability then of West Brom scoring 0 goals, say, would be calculated as follows:

0.48° xe~°'⁴⁸ P(West Brom score 0 goals) = ^^

Note that 0.48^u = 1, since anything raised to the power of zero is equal to one.

Also note that 0! = 1, since this is how zero factorial is defined. Hence we have:

1x0.618783

P(West Brom score 0 goals) =

1

= 0.6188

Table 2: below shows the calculations of the goal probabilities for against Manchester United, assuming that we have estimated West Brom's average goal scoring rate, playing away against Manchester United, to be 0.48 per match.

Table 2: Goal Probabilities for West Brom playing away versus

Manchester United

Goals			x!	Probability (цххе*/х!)
0	1	0.618783	1	0.6188
1	0.48	0.618783	1	0.2970
2	0.2304	0.618783	2	0.0713
3	0.110592	0.618783	6	0.0114
4	0.053084	0.618783	24	0.0014
5+				0.0001
Total				1.000

We can use the probabilities in Tables 1 and 2 to work out the probability of any particular score in this match, by multiplying the appropriate pair of probabilities together. For example, the probability of a 2-0 score would be:

P(2-0) = 0.2555 x 0.6188 = 0.1581

Table 3 below shows similar probabilities calculated in the same way for the range of possible scores. We can use this table of score probabilities to consider bets on the correct score as well as on the outcome in terms of a home win, draw or away win. For example, the probability for a correct score of 2-0 from Table 3 is 0.1581, which equates to fair odds for this outcome of (1-0.1581)/0.1581 = 5.33 and so it would not be beneficial to bet at odds below 5.33 to 1.

Table 3; Score Probabilities for Manchester United versus West Brom

		West Brom
		Goals	0	1	2	3	4	5+
	Goals		0.6188	0.2970	0.0713	0.0114	0.0014	0.0001
J	0	0.0805	0.0498	0.0239	0.0057	0.0009	0.0001	o.ocoo
с z> w	1	0.2028	0.1255	0.0602	0.0145	0.0023	0.0003	o.ocoo
Ф 1Л <D	2	0.2555	0.1581	0.0759	0.0182	0.0029	0.0003	o.ocoo
-C и с	3	0.2146	0.1328	0.0637	0.0153	0.0024	0.0003	0.0000
о 5	4	0.1352	0.0837	0.0402	0.0096	0.0015	0.0002	o.ocoo
	5+	0.1115	0.0690	0.0331	0.0079	0.0013	0.0002	o.ocoo

Fair odds on a home win can similarly be determined by totaling all the probabilities from Table 3 for scores which would give a home win (i.e. 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 etc.). These probabilities are highlighted in bold in Table 4 below, and total to 0.8177. Hence fair odds for a home win bet would be (1-0.8177)/0.8177 =0.22, i.e. 0.22 to 1.

Table 4: Score Probabilities Home win for Manchester United v West Brom

		West Brom
		Goals	0	1	2	3	4	5+
Manchester United	Goals	Probablity	0.6188	0.2970	0.0713	0.0114	0.0014	О.ООЭ1
	0	0.0805
	1	0.2028	0.1255
	2	0.2555	0.1581	0.0759
	3	0.2146	0.1328	0.0637	0.0153
	4	0.1352	0.0837	0.0402	0.0096	0.0015
	5+	0.1115	0.0690	0.0331	0.0079	0.0013	0.0002

Okay, so we now know how to use the Poisson distribution to determine score and match outcome probabilities. That is if we are able to estimate the goal scoring rates for the two teams in each match as well as the home effect. The next question therefore, is how can we estimate the scoring rates of each team and the home effect?

This is where the Model described in Maher (1982) and Lee (1977) comes in! The essence of the model described in those papers, is that each team has an underlying attacking ability and an underlying defensive ability, and it is these abilities that can be estimated using data on past match results. In addition, there is a home effect that can also be estimated. The scoring rate of each team is then related to its attacking ability and the opposition's defensive ability as follows:

If A, is the attacking ability of the home team, D, is the defensive ability of the away team and H is the home effect, then in this model, the average goal scoring rate for the home team, ц, is related to these attack and defensive abilities and the home effect as follows:

ц =A,xD>x H.

For example, suppose using data on past results, we have estimated the attacking ability of Manchester United to be to be A, = 1.4, the defensive ability of West Brom to be D₂ =1.2 and the home effect to be H = 1.5, the average goal scoring rate for Manchester United is then calculated as:

Я =A, x Dj x Я

= 1.4 x 1.2 x 1.5

= 2.52

This means that we can model the number of goals scored by Manchester United, playing at home against West Brom, using a Poisson probability distribution with an average scoring rate of 2.52, which indeed is what we did earlier!

Similarly, if A₂ is the attacking ability of the away team and D, is the defensive ability of the home team, then in this model, the average goal scoring rate for the away team, ц, is related to these attack and defensive abilities as follows:

ц = Л 2 x D/

Note that we do not have the home effect in this part of the model, since we are modeling the goals scored by the away team!

For example, suppose using data on past results, we have estimated the attacking ability of West Brom (as the away team) to be to be Л₂ = 0.6 and the defensive ability of Manchester United (as the home team) to be D, - 0.8, the average goal scoring rate for West Brom is then calculated as:

// = A; x D, = 0.6x0.8 = 0.48

This means that we can model the number of goals scored by West Brom, playing away against Manchester United, using a Poisson probability distribution with an average scoring rate of 0.48, which again is what we did earlier!

Maher, along with other authors, in fact found that the attack and defensive abilities of each team can be assumed to be the same irrespective of whether they play at home or away. These same authors also typically found that the home effect can be assumed to be the same for all teams.

The question then comes as to how can we estimate these attack and defensive abilities for each team as well as the home effect?

Well, there are a number of methods of doing this, but typically it's a case of finding estimates for the attacking and defensive abilities of each team, as well as the home effect, which produces a model that best fits the data. By a model of 'best fit', we typically mean the model that has estimates for the attacking and defensive abilities, and home effect, which would produce a set of score probabilities that best reflects the actual scores across the set of historical match results we are using to derive our model. This is done typically using techniques such as Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). Indeed, both Maher and Dixon and Coles use MLE to determine their attacking and defensive abilities and home effect.

Implementing MLE can be done fairly easily using a package such as Excel, but is a little more involved than the kind of maths we have so far looked at in this article, and perhaps we have done enough maths for one day!

Therefore, in a follow up article to this, I aim to show how you can use Excel to implement the MLE approach, to estimate the attacking and defensive abilities and the home effect and hence implement the above model based on the use of the Poisson probability distribution to forecast the probabilities of future match outcomes.

Biblography

Colwell, D. J. and Gillett, J. R., (1981) Is goal scoring a Poisson process?, The Mathematical Gazette, 65, 30-32.

Dixon, M. J. and Coles, S. G. (1997) Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market, Applied Statistics, 46, 265-280.

Lee, A. J. (1998) Modeling scores in the Premier league: is Manchester United really the best?, Chance, 10(1), 15-19.

Maher, M. J. (1982) Modelling association football scores, Statistica Neerlandica, 36, 109-118.

Moroney, M. J. (1956) Facts from Figures, 3^rd Ed., London, Penguin.

Pollard, R. (1985) Goal scoring and the Negative Binomial distribution, The Mathematical Gazette, 69, 45-47.

Reep, С., Pollard, R. and Benjamin, B. (1971) Skill and chance in ball games, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 131, 581-585.

PROFITING FROM STAYING 2yos

IN THE LATTER PART OF THE SEASON

Mark Foley

Most punters shy away from betting on 2yos in the belief that a lack of form lines greatly hinders their chances of picking a winner. However, as we enter the latter months of the season, the reality is that the 2yo races over longer distances can offer a rich seam of betting opportunities.

August sees the 2yos running over 8 furlongs for the first time and historically this is an area where the trends have proven to be strong and there are solid grounds for believing the status quo will be maintained in the immediate future. Why should this be so? There would appear to be three very strong factors influencing the results and they seem unlikely to change in the near future.

Breeding

The first and perhaps most obvious point to note is that very few 2yos have the stamina to win over what is basically a marathon trip for the youngsters and coming from the right gene pool is almost certainly the most important factor over these longer distances. A Saddlers Wells 2yo has a decent chance of winning over a mile or further, whereas the offspring of Mind Games or Averti would struggle to get to the finishing line in their horseboxes. Many of next year's classic winners will be introduced in these races and as a rule they tend to be won by better class runners, who are often blue bloods or expensive sales purchases.

(All figures relate to the seasons 2000-2007)

Progeny results for 2yos over 8f+ (Min 20 runs and 8 wins)

Sire	Runs	Wins	Win S/R (%)	ROI to SP (%)	P/L to SP	Placed	Placed S/R (%)
Sadler's Wells	188	23	12.23	-12.61	-23.71	46	27.88
Grand Lodge	177	20	11.3	-34.75	-61.5	28	17.83
Barathea	153	24	15.69	10.89	16.66	32	24.81
Mark of Esteem	136	10	7.35	-53.72	-73.06	30	23.81
Alhaarth	127	12	9.45	-27.17	-34.5	31	26.96
Marju	126	13	10.32	-31.25	-39.37	26	23.01
Vettori	125	8	6.4	-42.2	-52.75	13	11.11
Groom Dancer	123	11	8.94	-52.68	-64.8	15	13.39
Dr Fong	122	15	12.3	-25.14	-30.67	23	21.5
Selkirk	120	18	15	-18.43	-22.11	29	28.43
In The Wings	119	24	20.17	9.85	11.72	21	22.11
Spectrum	115	10	8.7	-51.67	-59.42	20	19.05
Montjeu	114	18	15.79	63.6	72.5	11	11.46
Danehill Dancer	113	18	15.93	9.54	10.78	20	21.05
Daylami	104	11	10.58	-56.14	-58.39	21	22.58
Singspiel	103	10	9.71	-32.67	-33.65	29	31.18
Fantastic Light	102	15	14.71	46.08	47	12	13.79
Inchinor	99	8	8.08	-51.59	-51.07	13	14.29
Cape Cross	94	12	12.77	-10.31	-9.69	19	23.17
Hernando	92	11	11.96	-1.22	-1.13	20	24.69
Rainbow Quest	89	9	10.11	-73.22	-65.17	19	23.75
Red Ransom	88	10	11.36	-57.09	-50.24	21	26.92
Hailing	87	8	9.2	-26.53	-23.08	15	18.99
Desert Prince	85	8	9.41	-42.16	-35.83	19	24.68
King's Best	80	18	22.5	12.6	10.08	10	16.13
Danehill	80	16	20	63.14	50.51	15	23.44
Alzao	71	13	18.31	31.94	22.68	14	24.14
Diesis	70	10	14.29	-43.57	-30.5	20	33.33
Definite Article	69	8	11.59	16.67	11.5	9	14.75
Zafonic	67	11	16.42	-13.06	-8.75	9	16.07
Galileo	66	9	13.64	10.06	6.64	11	19.3
Kingmambo	66	12	18.18	-26.96	-17.79	20	37.04
Bertolini	63	9	14.29	54.37	34.25	12	22.22
Peintre Celebre	59	9	15.25	-12.74	-7.52	11	22
Intikhab	48	9	18.75	74.48	35.75	10	25.64
Tagula	43	9	20.93	103.16	44.36	8	23.53
Jade Robbery	20	8	40	402.95	80.59	2	16.67

The Trainer

The 2^nd point to note is that very few trainers have either the ability or more probably the ammunition to win these races and the races tend to be dominated by the top trainers. Given that the best trainers train the vast majority of the better bred horses this should come as no surprise, however it's worth noting the runners from Terry Mills and Ralph Beckett's stable's, as both trainers have done well in this sphere and their winners often oblige at decent prices.

Trainers 2yo record over 8f + (min 10 wins)

			Win				Placed
			S/R	ROI to	P/Lto		S/R
Trainer	Runs	Wins	(%)	SP (%)	SP	Placed	(%)
M Johnston	560	92	16.43	-94.31	-16.84	106	22.65
M R Channon	508	51	10.04	-147	-28.94	113	24.73
R Hannon	478	48	10.04	-123.35	-25.8	106	24.65
J L Dunlop	350	41	11.71	-74.02	-21.15	75	24.27
J H M Gosden	323	65	20.12	64.1	19.85	65	25.19
E A L Dunlop	235	20	8.51	-134.14	-57.08	58	26.98
P F I Cole	228	31	13.6	-84.45	-37.04	42	21.32
В J Meehan	225	24	10.67	-79.49	-35.33	52	25.87
Mrs A J Perrett	212	20	9.43	-98.33	-46.38	45	23.44
M L W Bell	199	27	13.57	-43.68	-21.95	44	25.58
Sir Michael
Stoute	195	29	14.87	-68.6	-35.18	50	30.12
В W Hills	178	19	10.67	-43.89	-24.66	49	30.82
S Kirk	168	19	11.31	-41.55	-24.73	27	18.12
M A Jarvis	167	32	19.16	-25.45	-15.24	31	22.96
Sir Mark
Prescott	164	35	21.34	-21.31	-13	25	19.38
J A Osborne	159	18	11.32	-0.27	-0.17	31	21.99
R Charlton	150	19	12.67	-70.76	-47.18	30	22.9
С E Brittain	148	13	8.78	-12.13	-8.19	31	22.96
M H Tompkins	140	15	10.71	26.2	18.72	24	19.2

N P Littmoden	136	12	8.82	-6.92	-5.09	18	14.52
P С Haslam	134	13	9.7	-42	-31.34	19	15.7
N A Callaghan	132	14	10.61	-29.5	-22.35	17	14.41
M P Tregoning	129	25	19.38	-11.61	-9	25	24.04
К A Ryan	129	12	9.3	-9.51	-7.37	21	17.95
Saeed Bin
Suroor	127	31	24.41	-13.31	-10.48	36	37.5
H R A Cecil	101	24	23.76	8.09	8.01	24	31.17
G A Butler	101	20	19.8	-36.75	-36.39	24	29.63
D R С Elsworth	99	14	14.14	43.48	43.92	26	30.59
R M Beckett	80	10	12.5	26.5	33.13	13	18.57
A P Jarvis	79	10	12.66	-0.2	-0.25	15	21.74
W J Haggas	74	11	14.86	52	70.27	16	25.4
P W Chapple-
Hyam	70	11	15.71	63.45	90.64	10	16.95
J Noseda	60	12	20	-3.16	-5.27	15	31.25
T G Mills	57	13	22.81	53.17	93.29	9	20.45

Experience

The final point to note is that experience counts for more over these marathon trips than over shorter distances and approximately 5 out of every six races will be won by runners who have already had the benefit of a run. Excluding nurseries around 2 out of every 3 races are won by runners having their 2^nd or 3^rd run. The 2yo debutants, who are successful, usually come from a small pool of trainers, with Mark Johnston being to the fore in that group. In the past 3 seasons, only 3 trainers have had at least 1 winning debutant every year over 8f, namely Mark Johnston, John Gosden, and Ralph Beckett. Saeed Bin Suroor, Sir Michael Stoute, Michael Jarvis and Sylvester Kirk have managed the feat in 2 of the past 3 seasons. Brian Meehan had 2 debut winners last year (his first since 2003) and he is a trainer who has a good record with his debutants over 7f and could be worth monitoring this year.

Since the turn of the century 115 of these races have been won by debutants, but only 13 trainers have won 3 or more races with a debutant. With the exception of Sylvester Kirk (3 wins) they read like the

Who's Who of Newmarket ( strange to use that phrase and then mention Mark Johnston from Yorkshire...?), with John Gosden and Mark Johnston recording 25 wins between them and accounting for almost 1 in every 5 winners. The stats would suggest that if a debutant doesn't come from a top Newmarket yard, then it is unlikely to win on debut and the market proved to be a good barometer. 41 runners went off at less than 2/1 and apart from John Joseph Murphy's Sassy Girl, the 21 winners were all trained by top rank trainers and showed a nominal profit.

Last year was an above average year for the debutants and as the 2yos who manage to win their first race over a mile usually prove to be better class horses (they often make up into 95 + rated horses), it could be worth keeping an eye out for Mukhber, Bright Falcon, Comeback Queen, Cruel Sea, Captain Webb & Wintercast, who have yet to reappear this year.

Interestingly, Saddler's Wells with 9 debut wins over a mile is the only Sire whose progeny have recorded more than 5 debut winners. The progeny of Rainbow Quest, Grand Lodge, In the Wings, Daylami, Danehill and Selkirk in particular, all struggled on their debut runs as juveniles over 8f.

Trainers 2yo record on debut over 8f and further: (min 25

runners)

				ROI to			Placed
			Win S/R	SP	P/L to	Place	S/R
Trainer	Runs	Wins	(%>	(%)	SP	d	(%>
M Johnston	115	11	9.57	-41.8	-48.13	18	17.31
J H M Gosden	107	14	13.08	0.9	1	17	18.28
E A L Dunlop	66	3	4.55	-59.0	-39	8	12.7
Mrs A J Perrett	62	2	3.23	-74.1	-46	14	23.33
M R Channon	59	1	1.69	-89.8	-53	8	13.79
Sir Michael
Stoute	56	4	7.14	-55.8	-31.25	12	23.08
M L W Bell	56	3	5.36	-69.2	-38.8	7	13.21
M A Jarvis	56	5	8.93	-49.2	-27.6	8	15.69
R Charlton	51	0	0	-100	-51	7	13.73
H R A Cecil	50	9	18	-28.1	-14.08	7	17.07
Saeed Bin Suroor	43	6	13.95	-47.7	-20.52	11	29.73
P F I Cole	42	3	7.14	-63.6	-26.75	8	20.51
A P O'Brien	40	7	17.5	1.1	0.46	12	36.36
J L Dunlop	39	2	5.13	9.4	3.67	4	10.81
H Morrison	39	0	0	-100	-39	2	5.13
R Hannon	38	4	10.53	42.1	16	5	14.71
A M Balding	37	1	2.7	-64.8	-24	5	13.89
M P Tregoning	36	5	13.89	14.5	5.25	6	19.35
J A Osborne	30	0	0	-100	-30	6	20
L M Cumani	28	2	7.14	-41.0	-11.5	2	7.69
J R Fanshawe	28	1	3.57	-85.7	-24	6	22.22
В J Meehan	27	4	14.81	120.3	32.5	5	21.74

Sires 2yo debutants over 8f and further

			Win S/R	ROI to	P/L to		Placed
Sire	Runs	Wins	(%)	SP (%)	SP	Place	S/R (%)
Sadler's Wells	88	9	10.23	-5.5	-6.27	14	17.72
Montjeu	39	4	10.26	6.5	16.67	4	11.43
Grand Lodge	39	2	5.13	-25.0	-64.10	5	13.51
Selkirk	36	1	2.78	-29.0	-80.56	8	22.86
Rainbow Quest	34	2	5.88	-28.5	-83.97	5	15.63
Barathea	33	3	9.09	-14.5	-43.94	2	6.67
In The Wings	32	2	6.25	-13.5	-42.19	3	10.00
Groom Dancer	27	0	0.00	-27.0	-100.0	2	7.41
Daylami	26	1	3.85	-20.0	-76.92	4	16.00
Singspiel	26	4	15.38	5.7	22.03	4	18.18
Galileo	26	3	11.54	6.5	25.00	4	17.39
Machiavellian	24	1	4.17	-18.0	-75.00	4	17.39
Cape Cross	24	3	12.50	9.5	39.58	2	9.52
Unfuwain	24	0	0.00	-24.0	-100.0	0	0.00
Hernando	23	3	13.04	1.7	7.61	3	15.00
Mark of Esteem	22	0	0.00	-22.0	-100.0	2	9.09
Hailing	21	2	9.52	-13.8	-65.88	2	10.53

Summary: 2yos over 8f and further

Most winners will be having their 2^nd or 3rd run and debutants should be avoided, unless they are from a top yard.

Is the horse bred to win over the distance and do the progeny have a record of winning first time out?

Approximately 2 out of every three races are won by the first 3 in the market and runners priced 7/4 or less on debut have a good record.

FRONT RUNNING RESEARCH

David Renham

For this article I am going to revisit the whole question of pace or running styles with focus being on front runners. For the last four or five years the question of "pace" in a horse race is something that has become quite a hot topic. In the Racing Post for example, it is not unusual to read such comments as "all the pace is high so I expect high draws to prevail" or "there is plenty of pace in the race, which could set the race up for a finisher"; or "**** is the only confirmed front runner and hence could get a soft lead in front".

Knowing how a race is likely to "pan out" in terms of a "pace angle" can give punters a valuable insight for a variety of reasons:

1. Some course and distances do strongly favour horses that front run / race up with the pace; likewise there are plenty of others where front runners really struggle. Knowing this information can give you the extra confidence to back a selection, or indeed steer you clear of another.

2. Knowing how a race is likely to be run in terms of how much pace there is in the race makes it easier to spot horses that may get a soft lead, for example. Horses that get a soft lead have a much better chance of winning as their jockey should be able to set the ideal pace from the front. Conversely you may have a race with 3 or 4 confirmed front runners. In this case, the chances are that the front runners will go off too quickly as they try to dominate each other and hence the race is often set up for a horse coming from off the pace.

3. In big field straight course handicaps where the field splits into two distinct groups, there is sometimes an 'advantage' to one side in terms of pace. With confirmed front runners or pace setters on one particular side, there is more chance of a truly run race and hence one would expect the side with "better pace" to generally out perform the other. Unfortunately this is not an exact science but it can give you some useful clues.

4. Front runners over shorter distances tend to trade lower "in running"; likewise hold up horses tend to trade higher "in running". Knowing what running style a horse has can give you an "in running" edge over other traders.

Therefore, understanding pace / running styles can give you a useful advantage over fellow punters. However, for many, pace / running styles do not enter calculations when having a bet. Hence, for those of us who use this approach, we still should have an edge over the majority.

My theory about pace bias is similar to draw bias - it works best in handicaps and it works best when there are a decent number of runners. Hence for this research I have concentrated on handicaps only with 10 or more runners.

Before moving on to the main focus on this article let me share this information you. To give you some idea how well front runners do at shorter distances, it should be noted that in 10 or more runner handicaps over five furlongs (I assume this addiution is correct after rerading on below?) front runners win around 23% of races - that is nearly 1 race in 4. Hence, if you back in 5f handicaps you must always respect the most likely front runner. Indeed, if you were Mystic Meg and able to predict the front runner before every 5f handicap you would make an absolute fortune by backing all of them! However, this is not possible of course, although with some research you certainly have a good chance of the predicting the front runner in at least 50% of 5f sprints.

Conversely, it should come as no surprise that as the distance increases front runners start to find it harder to make all the running. Indeed over lm 4f or more in 10 or more runner handicaps, only 9.8% of front runners manage to last home. Now, the main focus of the research for this article is to pinpoint those course and distances where front runners struggle - hence I expected that there would plenty more longer distances than shorter ones! As an "in running" punter as well as a traditional one, this course and distance knowledge would help me in terms of laying poor value front runners.

We have already seen the difference between the winning percentage for front runners at 5f compared to lm4f or more. Taking all distances into account, front runners win roughly 15% of races in 10 or more runner handicaps. I decided I would look for course and distances where the front runner won less than 7% of the time. In addition, I decided to work out the percentage for the first three home - the idea being that if this figure was surprisingly high, then I would treat the raw win percentage with more caution.

The list has been compiled in alphabetical order and data is 1997 to today

Course	Distance	Front runner win%	Front runner 1st, 2nd, 3rd %
Ayr	lm If	5.9%	26.5%
Ayr	lm 2f	4.1%	20.5%
Bath	lm 2f	6.1%	20.4%
Beverley	lm 2f	6%	25.8%
Brighton	lm 4f	6%	26.5%
Carlisle	7f	6.4%	24.4%
Catterick	lm 4f	5.1%	25.6%
Doncaster	lm	3.4%	16.9%
Doncaster	7f	6.6%	15.9%
Epsom	lm 4f	6.6%	19.7%
Goodwood	6f	5.2%	22.4%
Hamilton	lm 4f & lm 5f	5.7%	19.1%
Musselburgh	2m	4.4%	15.2%
Newbury	lm 3f+	3.9%	13.3%
Newbury	5f	4.3%	25.5%
Newcastle	lm 2f - lm 4f	4.7%	14.8%
Nottingham	2m	5.1%	20.5%
Pontefract	2m If	5.5%	23.6%
Redcar	lm lf+	2.6%	19.1%
Salisbury	lm	5.6%	21.5%
Thirsk	lm 4f / 2m	4.3%	14.9%
Thirsk	lm	4.5%	26.5%
Warwick	7f	4.7%	28.1%
Warwick	lm 6f+	5.4%	17.9%
York	lm 6f+	2.5%	19%
Lingfield aw	lm 2f	6.8%	21.3%
Lingfield aw	lm 4f & lm 5f	3.9%	17.9%
Kempton aw	lm 3f+	4%	16%
Southwell aw	2m	0.9%	13.9%
Wolves aw	lm 5f-2m	5.2%	16%

As you can see I have grouped some distances together as certain courses displayed a similar bias over a particular distance spread. Not surprisingly there is only one 5f course and distance in the list; indeed there are only 5 course and distances that are less than 1 mile. The majority are longer distances as we would have expected.

Southwell on the all weather over 2 miles has been the worst course for front runners with just 1 runner from 108 managing to make all the running! This looks a license to print money from a laying "in running" perspective. One idea would be to wait for the relevant race to start; see how the first half of the race unfolds and then lay the leader (assuming it has led all the way to that point). Now laying is fraught with danger at big prices, but 47 of the front runners at Southwell started 10/1 or shorter. Indeed none of them won so even at a very conservative £2 a lay, you would have made a tidy £94 before commission; at £5 a lay this would have increased to £235 before commission. This laying idea looks to be a valid one here at Southwell, as well as over all the other course and distances in the list. I personally would be looking to lay all front runners after a few furlongs as long as a) they have taken the lead immediately or within the first furlong; b) their price was not too big to begin with; and c) the price had not drifted out considerably from the last show.

Of course when trading "in running" everything moves quite quickly so when a horse takes an early lead, you may not have any idea what price the horse traded at just before the off. To counteract this, you should open a window up on your computer with the betting from a traditional bookmaker. Once the front runner is established you can see what its last price was at the bookies and if you add around 20% that will give you a decent estimate of what price it was on Betfair at the off. From there you can go back to concentrating on the horse / race and the Betfair screen.

One advantage of this strategy of laying front runners is that the horse in question rarely trades too much higher in running that its initial price at the off. In addition, the longer the horse leads, the shorter the price tends to become, so timing the lay is naturally quite important. In long distance flat races you may see little change in price for a considerable time so be prepared for that scenario. Of course in an ideal world we would lay the front runner at the shortest possible price before it starts go backwards. This is impossible however, and if you are too greedy there is a chance you will miss your opportunity as the horse gets passed earlier than you had expected. Once a leader is passed the price will then often go through the roof and it is not worth laying at huge odds just in case the horse rallies and gets back in front.

If the horse you layed still manages to "make all", then the chances are it would have been layed at a price even shorter than the starting price which will limit any losses in the long run. It is not an exact science, but with practice it is definitely an area where money can be made as we are talking about roughly 1 horse in 20 managing to make all the running at the course and distances highlighted.

Of course, as stated near the beginning, this information is not just for "in running" punters, it can also be utilized in traditional betting. One idea is to try and predict the front runner before the start of the race.

Hence in order to try and predict how the race will be run you could produce individual horse pace figures using the following scoring system:

5 points - for comments like "made all", "made most", "led for 4f", etc. 4 points - for comments like "tracked leader", "prominent", etc. 3 points - for comments like "in touch", "chased leaders", etc. 2 points - for comments like "held up", "midfield", etc. 1 point - for comments like "behind", "raced in last", etc.

I use the last three races awarding points for each horse, depending on the formbook comments they have earned (see above), and then calculate an average for each horse. For example, a horse that has "held up" in both his last 2 races, but "chased leaders" in the third, would get a pace figure average of 2.33 (2+2+3 =7; then divide by 3).

When you have your set of figures for each horse, you are in a position to try to decide which horses are most likely to lead. Ideally you would have one horse on 5.0 and the remainder under 3.0 - that would usually be a pretty clear cut case, but of course these situations are rare to say the least. Once I have the 3 race pace averages for each horse, I tend to look at the horses that have the highest pace figures in more detail. I look back at their last 10 races to get a better overall "feel" about their running style. That combined with the basic pace figure for each horse usually gives a strong enough indication of which horse is most likely to lead. Of course, you may wish other factors to be taken into account such as draw position and class of race before deciding upon the most likely front-runner.

Once deciding upon the most likely front runner, or indeed front runners, one option is to then lay the horse or horses before the start. Habitual front runners tend to always try and front run and if they cannot for some reason (usually a quicker front runner), they tend to expend too much energy trying to do so. Hence, I would not worry if there were two or three potential front runners in a race as it should increase the number of solid laying opportunities. The course and distances in the table favour hold up horses and hence horses that race close to the leader tend to struggle also.

If you are not a layer, you may want to consider the following idea. Imagine a 12 runner race where you have pinpointed 3 genuine front runners. You decide to rule all three out as statistically their chances of winning are slim and hence look to back one of the other 9 runners. The chances are that the winner will come from those 9 so you are using your pace and course understanding to narrow down the candidates thus giving yourself a better opportunity of finding a winning bet.

The ideas from this research are not endless, but there are several avenues to explore. Indeed, one such avenue was looking at horses that had won from the front at any of the course and distances in the table. My theory was that if a horse had made all the running, then they must have run incredibly well against a strong negative pace bias. With that being the case, maybe they were worth backing again next time out? The results showed that of the 173 qualifiers, 31 went on to win again next time out - a strike rate of just under 18%. That was extremely positive, and backing all runners would have made a small profit of £582 to £100 level stakes. Clearly not a fortune, but it was pleasing that the idea showed promise. Indeed, I then decided to focus on course and distances where the 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd placed percentage was under 25% - the idea being that I was now focusing on those where front runners fared the worst. The figures now start to look very interesting - 28 wins from 139 runners (SR 20.1%) for a profit of £2607 to £100 level stakes.

My argument would be that this idea of backing past winners could be developed further - for example does it make a difference if you only concentrate on winners that raced at course and distances next time that actually favoured front runners? My gut feeling is that it would improve matters further, but that research is for another time. There's only so much time in the day, and only so much you can write in one article!

I hope you have found the article interesting - I certainly have and I will continue to develop my pace / running styles understanding over the coming months.

THE SPORTS TRADER

Justin Penrose

The original piece was written as an eventual response to a question from a new member of the SmarterSig discussion group. The topic was betting exchanges, and the member observed that he could not see how to take advantage of the user interface on the Internet to make a profit in his betting.

I referred him to the Sports Trader Blog website, where a professional gambler was reporting on his betting activities using an exchange interface. The intention was to illustrate a method that could be used for profitable betting. Several of the discussion group examined the site, but reported that the methodology used by the Sports Trader was not clear from the writing.

I undertook to write up what I saw as his underlying method, and the section starting with "Some Observations and Conclusions" below this foreword is the original piece.

I have now added more segments to round the report, and these start with the section entitled "Sitting on his shoulder".

The Sports Trader Blog - Some Observations and Conclusions

Please be aware that I have no personal or direct knowledge of what the Sports Trader does, or how he does many things. What I do have is curiosity, and an interest in discovering how he appears to make racing pay. So, what follows is essentially deduced from his blogs, plus some logical extrapolations of what is required to make methods work and produce a profit.

First, the bad news, there is no magic bullet or formula in what the Sports Trader does to make money. Now, the good news - his underlying principle is sound, and in combination with a number of disciplines and techniques, there is a workable method of making racing profitable. It is more of a recipe than a ready made meal.

Much of what follows will be very familiar to many members. What may not be quite so familiar is the particular way the Sports Trader puts it all together.

At the heart of his approach is the familiar principle of a good stock market trader - "buy low, sell high". If you can do that successfully often enough, you will make money. He has identified a combination of circumstances in racing and the betting exchanges where the opportunities to apply this kind of trading occur often enough to be profitable and justify the effort he puts into it.

He is very picky about races and runners. His ideal race is one which is expected to have a front running horse with an excellent chance of winning. As it happens, this usually means working with low prices. This is not a concern for him, as adjustment for reasonable profitability can always be made with the amount staked.

He places a backing bet after the race has started, and watches for developments. As the race unfolds, one of three possible scenarios (simplified) is likely to emerge:-

1 His selection goes clear reasonably early, and wins comfortably without any real threat from any other runner.

2 The backed horse is part of the pacemaking bunch until the quickening for the run in starts sorting them out. It's anybody's race until the closing yards.

3 The selection starts well with the rest, but then drops back, and is never in it again.

In case (1), the Sports Trader may place an additional backing bet, adding a few bob to his winnings. In many cases however, he will make a lay. This is insurance against sudden tiredness, going lame, saddle slipping, running off course, or any of the innumerable and unpredictable eventualities that happen in racing. It also reduces his exposure.

In case (2), a lay is almost universal. The main considerations are staking level and price at the time.

Case (3) is a loss, with no choice except to grin and bear it.

In the real world, of course, a race rarely runs exactly as in the simplified examples above.

So, the Sports Trader will watch the start of a race, to see if his selection has read the script. If it becomes clear that things are not going favourably, the betting action on that race will be aborted. The Sports Trader is not interested in gambling on the race developing in his favour.

The races where anticipated scenarios did not materialise are not written about in the blog. A blog would lose interest if it contained statements like "I fancied The Three Legged Wonder in the next race, but he made a shocking start, almost unsaddling his jockey, and never recovered from that. I did not bet on the race." My feeling is that in fact there are quite a few aborts during a typical day.

Earlier in the topic, Mark posted "I have no idea what his method is other than watching racing keenly and interpreting them skilfully along with as fast as you can get pictures."

In some ways, Mark was absolutely right. However, I think there is considerably more to it than that. A suitable description might be "Whenever his practised eye recognises the creation of an opportunity, the practised course of action is triggered."

John wondered "...or he is just good at race reading?", but I do not believe he reads a race in the normal sense of race reading. Rather, he is looking for a very specific set of circumstances to come into existence, and whenever and if they do, he executes his plan.

Time for some examples. From his blog, 21 Dec 2006:-

"In this first race the favourite was Stanley George with a starting price of 1.50. I backed him, in running, when clearly in the lead for £186 @ 2.00 then laid it all off @ 1.55, to give me the perfect start to the day and a profit of £83. "

From the race comments afterwards, it would seem that Stanley George made all, and won by 3 lengths from the second finisher, who was making no impression. The rest were never a threat and finished 7 or more lengths behind.

This race was close to scenario (1) above. It is highly likely that the lay need not have placed. By all accounts, he could have collected the whole £186 profit, yet he still placed the lay.

The profit truth table for the transactions is interesting for a couple of reasons:-

			Horse
	Stake	Odds	Wins	Loses
Back	186	2.00	+ 186	- 186
Lay	186	1.55	- 102.3	+ 186
Net			+ 83.7	+ 0

First, after the lay, the Sports Trader could not lose, he could only win (ignoring commission). Secondly, his liability was reduced to the point where no matter what the outcome of the race, his exposure was minimal. Even if a suffragette threw herself under the leading runner, his exposure was not a danger to the bank.

This exposure reduction is a common theme in most of his race betting of this type, and there are a number of other instances of seemingly unrequired lays being made. We can speculate about the numerous possibilities of why he chooses this approach. I believe the simplest explanation may be that he has learned over a long period of time that the most profitable long term approach for him was to eliminate the unexpected surprises as far as possible. It provides a comfort zone for his psychological mindset.

Interestingly, the above table could have ended up as follows:-

			Horse
	Stake	Odds	Wins	Loses
Back	186	2.00	+ 186	- 186
Lay	240	1.55	- 132	+240
Net			+ 54	+ 54

In that race, it would have been possible to lock in a guaranteed profit irrespective of the result.

Another example, from the same day:-

"In the 13:10 at Ludlow I started with a small lay of £5 @ 5.00 on the favourite, Kaldouas. I then backed Art Virginia for £135 @ 1.83 when going into the lead with about 4 furlongs left to race. I put up a lay of £60 @ 1.10 on the run in and got matched, to leave me with a profit of £111."

The Art Virginia profit table:-

			Horse
	Stake	Odds	Wins	Loses
Back	135	1.83	+ 112	- 135
_Lay	60	1.10	- 6	+ 60
Net			+ 106	- 75

(decimals omitted for clarity).

Here we have a less clear cut race, and probably more typical of Sports Trader betting races than the first example. From race comments it seems that Art Virginia did get clear, but tired near the end and was being reeled in, managing to pass the post 3 lengths ahead.

There are a few aspects of this example that cannot be regarded as usual, but there are other characteristics, which are typical of the Sports Trader, approach.

A striking departure from normal in some ways is the lateness of the backing bet. The race was a 2m4f handicap chase, but was already about 80% run when the bet was placed. Another unusual item was backing Art Virginia. The Racing Post had forecast it at 16/1 (8th favourite). Before the race, it was around 25.0 on Betfair, before shortening to 20.0 at the off. After the early stages of the race, the Betfair odds dropped and dropped. Clearly it began forging through the field. However, none of this background concerned the Sports Trader - what he saw was a horse looking good, running well, in front and likely to win. Most importantly, the price still had a way to drop - an opportunity to make money.

Here also he could have locked in a guaranteed profit of £89 or so with a £224 lay instead of the £60. Nevertheless, the £60 lay did reduce his exposure from the initial £135 to £75 for the latter stages of the race.

If one were to draw up a set of rules or guidelines for the Sports Trader strategy, they might look something like this:-

1. Choose your selections and races carefully.

2. Watch, and wait for all the ingredients of an opportunity to come together.

3. If the opportunity does not materialise in all respects, do not bet.

4. Do not chase losses. Forget them, and carry on as normal.

5. Do not have fixed money targets or objectives. A profitable trade is the only target.

6. If you cannot watch the event, do not bet.

7. Always operate in your comfort zone. If things are not right, walk away.

This is speculative, of course, and one might add, modify, or subtract from the set. What I believe underlies it is a rigid and consistent discipline, absolute concentration and focus at the right moments, and an immense amount of practice and preparedness.

The blog also reports betting action on soccer, golf, and snooker.

A couple of examples:-

"I turned the golf on as Tiger Woods was 3 shots clear and on the 9th hole. I watched for a while before backing the Tiger for £200 @ 1.20 and then laying off at 1.16 to 1.12. By the 16th hole it was looking like Tiger all the way and I backed him again for £545 @ 1.05, then felt a bit uncomfortable so I commenced laying this off @ 1.03. This left me with a profit on the golf of £27."

"In the UK Snooker Championship final I only had a small trade where I backed Peter Ebdon for £390 @ 1.32 whilst he was 8 -6 up against Stephen Hendry. With Peter well ahead in the frame I commenced laying off with lays at 1.23 for £100 and 1.20 for £105. At this stage Stephen got back to the table and I made a further lay for £185 @ 1.32 to get rid of my liability and leave me with a profit of £23 when Peter eventually won the Championship."

Again, trading and ensuring a profit, rather than waiting for a bet to make a return.

Quote from the blog; 16 Dec 06 - 12:25 at Haydock "...my favourite types of race to trade where there are not too many runners, a decent amount of prize money up for grabs and decent quality horses competing."

The race was a 2 mile chase with 5 runners, £9395 prize, and a standard time just about on 4 minutes. Not too many runners to bother about, plenty of time to watch and assess the performances, and also plenty of time for bet placement.

Some statistics:-

Period 9 Dec 06 to 21 Dec 06.

During the period, the blog reported 23 back and lay bet races. Of these, 16 selections won, 7 lost. Of the 7 losers, 4 returned a profit because of the lay bet, 2 lost money, and one returned zero (backing liability fully offset by lay).

So, 20 of the 23 races were profitable - for an overall gain of £538.

There were many other bets in that period, including a number on other sports. I have only counted the back/lay pairs on racing. There were also a few back bets where the selection ran clear and a lay was not needed, but I did not count those. There were also quite a few where multiple back and lay bets were made in a single race. In one extreme race a horse was backed or laid a total of seven times in running. No races other than single back and single lay combinations were counted.

An interesting footnote - had the Sports Trader not placed any lay bets in the 23 races, he would have profited to the tune of £1102, but the associated exposure of £2049 would have been way outside his comfort zone.

At a personal level, the Sports Trader approach is not for me. I like the principle of what he does, but do not fancy meeting the absolute prerequisite of watching all the action waiting for the opportunities to be snapped up. It suits his mindset, but not mine.

If anybody does feel like exploring these techniques, I would strongly recommend the following:-

1. Start with a selection method that is centred about the sharp end of closed races.

2. Paper and pencil practice until the eye can spot the betting opportunities with some degree of success. Something like 6 columns on a sheet of paper. The first column details the selected runner and race. Column two is for noting the back price if an opportunity occurs. Column 3, used only if column two has a back bet, is for noting the lay bet price. Column 4 is for calculating the potential points to be won or lost. Column 5 records the result -horse won or lost. The last column indicates simply whether a profit could have been made or not.

The sharp eyed reader will have noted the absence of any mention of staking level in the previous paragraph. This is deliberate - the staking decision is very much secondary and subsidiary to the ability to react promptly and correctly to the current race situation.

3. Keep practicing until the paper exercises show that the substantial majority of your betting decisions are in your favour.

4. Develop a mindset that does not concern itself too much whether a trade made 5p, £5 or £50 profit - the only thing that counts is that most trades are profitable. Once that level of proficiency is achieved consistently, stakes can be adjusted to whatever rate of return is required.

(I am fairly sure the Sports Trader has already decided on his staking level in his selection preparation session in the morning. I have the feeling he applies some kind of proportionality algorithm related to the risk and the chances of a horse winning. Quite what it is, and how it may be adjusted by the available liquidity at race time is not known. He also has a fairly clear idea of the lay stake amount before the race even starts.)

Sitting on his shoulder

Although I was fairly clear about his underlying method and its practicability as a profitable approach to betting, I had never used the technique in any previous betting. So, I decided to try it out for myself.

My intention was to observe some races with a video recorder running and try to emulate the Sports Traders bets, so that afterwards I could compare notes with his blog and see whether I had matched or come close to his apparent success.

Unfortunately, that plan was scuppered by the Sports Trader breaking off from the daily blog, and his site remaining inactive for 9 months.

However, there was nothing to prevent me from applying the method myself. So, accordingly, I settled down for a few afternoons when there was racing broadcast on terrestrial TV, and started the video recorder. I also had a computer program running which would record the time of keyboard activity so that the exchange prices could be established at those points.

I watched a dozen flat races. In three of them, a runner caught my attention as becoming a likely winner when second, but beginning to move on the front runner. In two of the three races the selected runner went well clear and was never in danger all the way. In the third race, he gained couple of lengths, but then started to tire and I recorded a lay bet. In the event he held on to win by half a length.

I found the three winners relatively easy to spot, but all three came to my attention between 4 and 3 furlongs out. I believe with practice it might well be possible to spot likely winners earlier.

I did not actually place bets, but the timing marks I made (as if I were placing bets) showed backing prices just above evens on all three (just above 2.0 in exchange speak). The one potential lay would have been made at 1.3 on the exchange, ensuring a 60% ROI no matter what the result.

Placing exchange bets

In the discussion group, an observation was made that what was needed for the Sports Trader approach was fast pictures and fast fingers. The first is certainly true, but the second is not such an absolute requirement as it may seem at first. The reason for this lies in the way the exchange betting is processed on the websites.

For example, Betfair guarantees that every bet will be matched at the best price available at the time of the bet. This means that if a back bet is submitted at a requested price of 2.50 and there is an offer available at 2.80, the bet will be matched at 2.80 to the amount of stake available with that offer.

The minimum back price that can be requested on Betfair is 1.01, and the maximum lay price is 1000.00.

It is quite likely that the Sports Trader prepares a back betting slip on the screen for a £200 stake at 1.01 price and takes the bet through to the confirmation stage where all that is necessary to place the bet is a press of the Enter key. If his fancy looks like it will produce the goods, he hits Enter. This will come back with a matched amount and price. He immediately prepares a lay betting slip for the matched stake amount at a price of 10.00 (say), and takes that through to the confirmation stage. This only takes a few seconds. He then returns his attention to the race, with his finger poised on the Enter button in case a lay bet is needed. If it turns out that a lay is needed a quick glance at the prevailing prices to ensure that the current lay price is below the back price and Enter is pressed.

Now he cannot lose. He either has a locked in profit, or a free bet on a win. Which it is will depend on the stake amount he specified in the lay bet.

(For newcomers to the exchange screens, the TAB key on the keyboard can be used to move the focus from where you have typed your stake, to leave the focus resting on the 'Place bets' button. All that is needed then to submit the bet is to hit the Enter key. Shift+TAB will move the focus in the reverse direction. On some keyboards, the TAB key may be identified with a pair of arrows facing in opposite directions, left and right.)

Most of his back betting is at low prices in the same range, and the same applies to the lay betting, so he is very familiar with the numbers and price patterns that come up time after time. He really does not need to do any calculations to decide on the lay stake amount for either a locked in profit or a free bet. More importantly, he is not concerned whether he makes £5 or £50 on the trade, as a very high proportion of trades are profitable.

To illustrate this point, let us look at three back and lay pairs in the range that might be regarded as typical for the Sports Trader.

			Horse
	Stake	Odds	Wins	Loses
Back	250	2.00	+250	-250
Lay	250	1.50	-125	+250
Net			+ 125	+0
Locked in profit, no matter what
			Horse
	Stake	Odds	Wins	Loses
Back	250	2.00	+250	-250
>ay	333	1.50	-166	+ 333
Net			+ 84	+83
A free lay bet on a loser
			Horse
	Stake	Odds	Wins	Loses
Back	250	2.00	+250	-250
_Lay	500	1.50	-250	+ 500
Net			+0	+250

The point here is that after the £250 back bet, any lay bet with a stake between £250 and £500 cannot lose any money, and will in most cases make a profit return.

The Sports Trader will be very familiar with the numbers in this range, and it is probable that he actually does not calculate stake amounts when preparing the lay bet - he just uses a number he knows will work in his favour.

I have a sneaking suspicion that his technique may well have evolved after an extensive study of the way the numbers move on the exchange screens. He spotted that the one area where the price movement is predominantly in one direction is on the leading horse. He decided that the place to trade was there.

1  Key labels vary from calculator -t hose indicated here are based on a Casio fx-

83ES